Snow tonight takes southern route, largely misses FLX

finger lakes weather forecast monday february 12 2024 clouds sun snow misses south
A quiet weather day will stretch into a quiet weather night as snow largely remains south of the region over Pennsylvania. [Photo by Gwen Moshier]

Latest snow details

An area of low pressure will pass by to the south tonight, barely grazing the Finger Lakes region with snowfall.

Since late last week, I have been talking about this system and holding onto a more southern route. In yesterday’s blog post, I illustrated the high levels of uncertainty still in play and broke the region into four zones based on these uncertainties.

Since that blog post, the models have finally come into a strong consensus and keep the snow on a southern route. This consensus is in line with my feelings from late last week and even more south than I allowed myself to go yesterday, given the uncertainties that were still showing.

Before we get to tonight’s weather, there is the daytime today.

It will be a quiet day, with plentiful clouds but also a few breaks of sunshine. The sun will be most likely in the afternoon.

Winds will be nearly calm this morning before picking up from the northeast later on. Temperatures will be similar to yesterday with a high near 40 degrees.

Clouds will increase tonight as temperatures back through the 30s.

If snow makes it into our region at all, it will not do so until well after midnight. Any snow should be confined to Tioga, Chemung, and southeastern Steuben counties. Minor accumulations will be possible, which could lead to some slick spots for the Tuesday morning commute. Even these areas have a chance at still being missed completely, though.

For the rest of the FLX, it will remain dry through the night and into Tuesday morning. Low temperatures Tuesday morning will be in the mid and upper 20s.

Tuesday itself will be cloudy with a high in the mid 30s. Breezy northwest winds will gust between 20-30 mph.

There is still some snow to discuss, though.

A separate piece of energy will drop southeast into the area during the evening and overnight hours.

Conditions look favorable for snow squalls, which may briefly reduce visibility to near zero and cause rapidly changing road conditions. Gusty winds will accompany the heavy snow, possibly reaching 40 mph at times.

These squalls look most likely after 8 PM tomorrow and may continue on and off through the night with an inch or two of accumulation.

finger lakes weather 7-day forecast mon feb 12 | mon, clouds, some sun near 40 | tues, flurries, squalls late mid 30 | wed, sun and clouds am flurries? upper 20 | thur, some late snow upper 30 | fri, scattered lake effect snow near 30 | sat, scattered lake effect snow upper 20 | sun, am snow showers mid 30
This graphic represents an average over the entire Finger Lakes region. Localized variations should be expected. Click to enlarge.

Cool Weather Continues

Behind this system, temperatures will drop for Wednesday. Most areas will not escape the 20s during the afternoon.

There may be a few lingering flurries early Wednesday, but most of the day should be dry. Some sun will mix with the clouds, especially during the afternoon.

Northwest winds will continue to be blustery, with gusts of 25-35 mph from the northwest. The strongest winds will be over the eastern half of the region.

Wednesday night will be cool, with overnight lows in the upper 10s and low 20s. Temperatures will rebound on Thursday as south winds take over ahead of the next system. Afternoon highs may make it into the upper 30s.

Snow showers will move late Thursday and continue through the night. This snow should be widespread but will only produce an inch or two of accumulation.

Temperatures will take another dip behind this system, with highs near 30 on Friday and into the upper 20s on Saturday. Areas of lake effect snow seem likely, but it is too early to pinpoint locations or amounts.

The weather models begin to vary quite a bit by Sunday and especially into next week. Large ranges in possibly temperatures are showing, which decreases confidence in any particular pattern.

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This graphic represents an average over the entire Finger Lakes region. Localized variations should be expected.

Follow Meteorologist Drew Montreuil:
Meteorologist Drew Montreuil has been forecasting the weather in the Finger Lakes region since 2006 and has degrees in meteorology from SUNY Oswego (B.S. with Honors) and Cornell (M.S.). Drew and his wife have four young boys. When not working or playing with the boys, he is probably out for a run through the countryside.

  1. Susan S
    | Reply

    Thank you!

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