Active Weather Unfolding
When strong low pressure systems track through the Upper Great Lakes and into eastern Canada during the late winter, you can bet on active weather in the Finger Lakes.
This will be the case as low pressure over the Upper Midwest today will track into eastern Canada tomorrow, gaining additional strength as it does so until becoming a potent, strong low.
Teaming up with high pressure over the Atlantic Ocean, this low has already dictated an increase in southerly winds across our region. Temperatures rose into the 40s for most areas overnight and will continue to rise unabated today.
Sunshine through the morning and into the afternoon will add to the warming. Many areas will be near or above 60 degrees today as a result, and the warmest areas should easily make it into the mid and even upper 60s. This will be most likely in and around Rochester, Dansville, and Syracuse.
Clouds will increase during the afternoon, and a few scattered showers will be possible after 4 PM.
Winds today will be 10-15 mph from the south, but most gusts should stay near or under 30 mph.
Those winds will persist through the overnight, as will clouds and batches of showers. A few rumbles of thunder will also be possible overnight. Temperatures will stay near or above 50 degrees through the night in many areas.
The weather will ramp up on Wednesday as the low passes to our north, dragging a strong cold front through during the mid to late afternoon.
On and off showers will be possible through the morning and first part of the afternoon. As the front arrives, a band of heavy rain, wind, and possibly some thunder will race across the region. The timing of this heavy band currently looks between 2-5 PM.
Temperatures will easily make it into the low 60s with some pockets of mid 60s ahead of the cold front. Clouds and showers will probably prevent it from getting quite as warm as today.
The south wind will increase with gusts up to 40 mph ahead of the front.
As the front passes, the weather will change instantly. Winds will turn to the northwest and increase further with gusts of 40-50 mph, and temperatures will plummet.
Within 15-30 minutes, temperatures will fall through the 50s and 40s, ending up in the upper 30s within an hour of the frontal passage.
After 1-2 hours following the frontal passage, it will become cold enough for precipitation to turn to snow. The chances for snow will increase as the front presses eastward and the system matures. Areas east of Cayuga Lake could see a coating of snow by the early evening.
As temperatures continue to drop, areas of flash-freezing will be possible during the evening. By 8 PM, temperatures should mainly be in the 20s across the Finger Lakes.
Cold Doesn’t Last
Widespread precipitation will taper off during the first part of Wednesday evening. Winds, too, should begin to decrease by the time midnight rolls around. Still, gusts as high as 40 mph will be possible through the night.
Lake effect snow will also develop southeast of Lake Ontario Wednesday night. This band should mainly impact Wayne County, Cayuga County north of Auburn, and Onondaga County. Snow will continue in these areas through Thursday morning before briefly sagging south around midday, then shooting north and dissipating Thursday afternoon.
Localized accumulations of 6 inches or more will be possible, though most areas impacted by the band will be in the 3-6 inch range. As always with lake effect, sharp gradients in snow are likely when comparing areas within the band to those just outside.
Elsewhere in the Finger Lakes, Thursday will be cloudy through the morning with increasing sun in the afternoon. It will be windy, with northwest winds gusting to 40 mph once again. Winds will be higher outside of the snow band than within.
Temperatures will start the day in the low 20s and many areas will fail to reach 30 degrees. Thursday night’s temperatures will settle into the low and mid 20s and mostly remain steady through the night as winds turn back to the south.
Sun-filled skies are expected on Friday as temperatures rocket back upwards. Many areas will end up around 50 degrees Friday afternoon.
Saturday will add a few clouds into the mix but will still be quite sunny. Morning lows will be in the mid 30s with afternoon highs in the low 50s.
Clouds will increase further on Sunday, but some sunshine should still mix in at times. Temperatures will continue to rise, reaching a high in the upper 50s.
Monday will push towards 60 degrees with a few scattered showers moving in. Warm weather will persist for Tuesday and Wednesday next week.
Next Thursday is looking similar to tomorrow, with a strong low passing to our north and a rapid drop in temperature as its cold front moves through.
More Information:
» Finger Lakes Weather Radar
» Zip Code Forecasts
» Get the FLX Weather Mobile App
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This graphic represents an average over the entire Finger Lakes region. Localized variations should be expected. Don’t Miss an Important Update
Kathleen Halton
I weawy like your pronouncement of “warm, wet, windy then white weather Wednesday.” Nice job with the W’s. (;