Cool Temperatures
Low pressure over Maine this morning will pull cold air down into the Finger Lakes region today.
Northwest winds are already in place behind the low with morning temperatures starting in the upper 10s and low 20s.
Some areas of lake effect linger this morning, mostly for areas east of Cayuga Lake. These snow showers should dwindle through the morning.
Other locations are seeing some sunshine to start the day. Skies will probably get cloudier this morning, followed by a gradual decrease in clouds this afternoon.
Winds will be blustery this morning with gusts as high as 40 mph at times. The wind will gradually decrease this afternoon.
Afternoon highs will be within a couple degrees on either side of 30 degrees. Fewer clouds and lighter winds tonight mean widespread mid and upper 10s by dawn Friday.
Clouds will increase rather quickly Friday morning and will stick around throughout the day. High temperatures will be in the mid 30s.
A piece of atmospheric energy crossing the Great Lakes will bring some light snow late Friday afternoon and into the evening. Meanwhile, low pressure will be gathering strength over the southeastern United States and will track northeast Friday night.
Precipitation will increase after midnight, but temperatures should rise as well. A transition between rain and snow, possibly with a small area of sleet or ice, should set up somewhere over our region. To the north of this, precipitation will mostly be snow with several inches possible. To the south, there will be mostly rain through Saturday morning.
Where exactly this boundary sets up remains uncertain, but in these situations, the models tend to underestimate the intrusion of warm air, though this bias has been less in recent years. My current thinking, therefore, is for areas along and north of I-90 to have the best shot at 4 inches of snow or more while most of the rest of the area sees low amounts and mixing precipitation types.
By Saturday morning, the low will be along the Mid-Atlantic coast and really starting to ramp up. However, precipitation in our area should start to taper off and end sometime in the morning or midday hours.
Precipitation should end as snow, with a final couple inches falling.
As always, the exact track of the low will determine how this unfolds. If everything came together absolutely perfectly, this system could dump heavier snow over the eastern FLX. However, that would require a surprising and impressive confluence of things lining up just right with one another, and therefore remains only a fringe possibility at this time.
Quiet and Mild Weather
Tranquil weather will build in behind this system late Saturday and especially into Sunday, when mostly sunny skies are expected.
North winds behind the low will ensure it stays cool, with lows Sunday morning in the low 20s and afternoon highs in the mid to upper 30s.
However, winds will shift by Monday and warmer air will quickly move back in. Aided by sunshine mixing with a few clouds, afternoon highs should jump into the low 50s.
Tuesday also looks mild, but cloudier. There may even be some rain showers later in the day. Nonetheless, morning lows will start out in the mid 30s and afternoon highs should again reach the low 50s.
Wednesday will be similar, only with the chances for some rain showers coming during the morning. Most of the rain from this system should fall Tuesday night. The nighttime rain will keep temperatures around 40 degrees. Afternoon highs will break into the low 50s once again.
The weather becomes less certain late next week with another large weather system possibly impacting the area. The models seem split between a faster, weaker system Thursday, or a stronger, potentially colder system holding off until Friday.
Overall, temperatures should stay near or slightly above average as we turn from March into April. It remains far too early to have any indication how April 8th will turn out for the eclipse.
More Information:
» Finger Lakes Weather Radar
» Zip Code Forecasts
» Get the FLX Weather Mobile App
This graphic represents an average over the entire Finger Lakes region. Localized variations should be expected.
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