Afternoon showers and thunderstorms expected today

finger lakes weather forecast tuesday april 30 2024 afternoon showers and thunderstorms
Rain is likely this afternoon with a few thunderstorms across the southern FLX. Some hail or strong winds cannot be ruled out. [Photo by Lisa Miller]

Mid-Week Weather Forecast

A stalled out frontal boundary remains parked over the Finger Lakes this morning.

While southern areas are starting the day in the 50s and low 60s, Wayne and Monroe counties and surrounding areas are starting out in the mid 40s.

This temperature boundary will remain in place today and will play an important role in this afternoon’s weather.

On the warm side of the boundary, temperatures will again rise well into the 70s with pockets of low 80s. If you were warm yesterday, you should be warm again today.

For roughly the southern half of the region, it should become warm and humid enough for some afternoon thunderstorms to develop. Any sunshine this morning will only increase those chances.

As the storms develop over our region and move eastward, there is a chance they will strengthen. The best chance for storms will be between 2-5 PM.

finger lakes weather forecast thunderstorm map tuesday april 30 2024 thunderstorms over the southern flx with a few stronger storms from Bath eastward toward Cortland and Binghamton.
Areas in green on the map may see a few thunderstorms today while a stronger storm cannot be ruled out in the yellow areas. [Click to Enlarge]
Some isolated hail will be possible, with a slightly higher risk for some strong, potentially even severe wind. A couple of severe thunderstorm warnings may be needed, but the threat should be low enough and isolated enough that a watch will not be necessary.

Most areas will not see severe weather, and everything will have to come together just right to get any strong storms whatsoever. But it is a chance worth mentioning this morning and monitoring into the afternoon.

In the cooler, northern areas, thunderstorms are quite unlikely. Instead, periods of rain are expected this afternoon.

A few lingering showers will be possible anywhere in the region this evening and some areas of fog or drizzle may persist into early Wednesday. Overnight lows will be around 50 degrees, with mid 40s along the immediate Lake Ontario shoreline.

Clouds will stick around through Wednesday morning with only a gradual increase in sunshine Wednesday afternoon. Winds will remain light, if not calm.

Temperatures will be a bit more uniform on Wednesday, with mid 70s in the broad valleys of the Southern Tier ranging to mid 60s along the Lake Ontario shoreline and in the higher elevations of the eastern Finger Lakes. Most areas will be around 70 degrees.

finger lakes weather 7-day forecast tue apr 30 | tues, afternoon showers, storms low 70 | wed, sun and clouds near 70 | thur, thin clouds, some sun upper 60 | fri, clouds, some sun mid 70 | sat, numerous showers mid 60 | sun, an am shower m cloudy upper 60 | mon, sun and clouds near 70
This graphic represents an average over the entire Finger Lakes region. Localized variations should be expected. Click to enlarge.

Late Week and Weekend Weather

The remainder of the work week will be quiet and mild before unsettled weather arrives for Saturday.

Thursday will have a mix of sun and clouds. Many of the clouds will be thin clouds high in the atmosphere, so it should turn out to be a fairly sunny day. No rain is expected.

Northwest winds will pick up with speeds around 10 mph. This will knock temperatures back a couple of degrees, with most areas not quite reaching 70 degrees. The main exception will again be the warm valleys of the Southern Tier, where low and even mid 70s will persist.

Friday will start off with lows in the mid and upper 40s for our overall coolest morning of the week. Clouds will increase and thicken, though sunshine will still mix in.

The wind will be light again on Friday, but from the southeast. Temperatures will respond with widespread mid 70s and pockets nearing 80 degrees.

Rain is likely on Saturday, though the timing of a front will determine whether there are any periods that are drier than others. Temperatures will be held in the mid 60s by the clouds and showers.

A few lingering showers will be possible on Sunday, with a gradual increase in sunshine later in the day. Highs will be in the upper 60s.

Sunshine and highs in the 70s will return for Monday before another weather maker Tuesday into Wednesday. Temperatures will likely remain mild, but there is a large spread in possibilities showing on the models, so uncertainty remains high.

More Information:

» Finger Lakes Weather Radar

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finger lakes weather 7-day forecast tue apr 30 | tues, afternoon showers, storms low 70 | wed, sun and clouds near 70 | thur, thin clouds, some sun upper 60 | fri, clouds, some sun mid 70 | sat, numerous showers mid 60 | sun, an am shower m cloudy upper 60 | mon, sun and clouds near 70
This graphic represents an average over the entire Finger Lakes region. Localized variations should be expected.

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Follow Meteorologist Drew Montreuil:
Meteorologist Drew Montreuil has been forecasting the weather in the Finger Lakes region since 2006 and has degrees in meteorology from SUNY Oswego (B.S. with Honors) and Cornell (M.S.). Drew and his wife have four young boys. When not working or playing with the boys, he is probably out for a run through the countryside.