Monday Thunderstorm Updates
The atmospheric set up today remains exceptionally complex, with a wide variety of possibilities still on the table.
A strong area of low pressure over Michigan has been spreading copious amounts of intense severe weather throughout much of the central and eastern United States since Friday evening. Yesterday alone had over 1000 reports of severe weather.
This system pushed a warm front through the region overnight, even earlier than originally expected. This has temperatures already well into the 60s to start this morning with dewpoints not far behind. Blustery south winds are also in place.
A weak band of showers and storms is racing through western Pennsylvania as of 7:30 this morning, left over activity from yesterday’s thunderstorms. This will move into the Finger Lakes during the mid to late morning hours.
If this were several hours later, there would be some real concern about it flaring back up into a line of severe thunderstorms, and such a thing may indeed happen over eastern Pennsylvania and New York. However, here in the Finger Lakes, I think it will arrive too quickly for the atmosphere to be primed sufficiently.
Still, some enhanced wind gusts and rumbles of thunder are likely at a minimum during the later half of the morning as this moves through.
The next question then becomes whether additional storms develop this afternoon, and when and where the greatest threats may end up.
The number of variables at play, ranging from how many breaks in the clouds, to how subtle perturbations in the atmosphere associated with other storms, both today’s and yesterdays, cannot be understated… or even fully understood.
I would expect at least scattered additional thunderstorms this afternoon, possibly in multiple rounds.
The severe threat itself is also complicated. There is a lot of wind energy in the lowest levels of the atmosphere, but not necessarily much else going for the severe threat.
Still, there have been plenty of past cases where strong enough winds can overcome other deficiencies to produce severe weather. And there have been plenty of cases where it is not enough.
Overall, I do not think the severe weather threat today will be exceptionally widespread, but that there will be some pockets that see strong to damaging winds.
With many people out and about today to celebrate Memorial Day, the inherent risk from severe weather is increased. The best advice to stay safe today is to seek shelter when you hear thunder, have multiple ways to receive any weather warnings, and have a plan in place ahead of time.
Weather the Rest of the Week
This same low pressure system will impact our region for much of the week in one way or another.
For tomorrow, clouds will be plentiful with occasional showers and a few thunderstorms. It will not rain all day, and there should be no severe weather concerns. But the rain and thunderstorms may become plentiful during the afternoon hours.
Wednesday will have a similar evolution, but everything will take place a bit further south. For the northern half of the region, this may mean minimal rain. For the southern half, it will be another showery afternoon.
Thursday, Friday, and possibly Saturday all look dry as the low gradually moves out of the picture.
High temperatures will only be in the mid 60s Wednesday and Thursday and will slowly increase late in the week.
More Information:
» Finger Lakes Weather Radar
» Zip Code Forecasts
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This graphic represents an average over the entire Finger Lakes region. Localized variations should be expected.
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