Heavy Thunderstorms
A weather disturbance will pass just south of the region today, inciting slow moving thunderstorms with torrential downpours this afternoon.
Concern for locally excessive rain has been growing across the region for this afternoon and the Weather Prediction Center has upgraded much of our region to a level 2 out of 4 for flash flood risk.
Showers and thunderstorms are ongoing this morning over western Pennsylvania just ahead of an atmospheric disturbance. While individual parts of this area of unsettled weather will likely dissipate this morning, redevelopment is expected during the midday and early afternoon hours over our region.
Due to the anticipated track of the parent disturbance, some of the storms may be especially slow moving over even stationary over the Finger Lakes. With the potential for localized rainfall rates of 1-3 inches per hour, this could quickly lead to excessive rainfall.
Most of the region is modeled as being able to take on about 1.5 to 2 inches in an hour before flooding begins, or 2 to 3 inches in a three-hour period. While these levels are not expected to be exceeded on a large scale, a few small localities may.
This could lead to moderate to significant flash flooding on a micro-scale in a worst-case scenario. Probably 99% of the area will not see this, and hopefully it will not come to fruition at all. But the possibility remains and cannot be ignored.
While rain may start as soon as midday and linger into the evening, the mid and late afternoon are the times with the greatest coverage and intensity of rainfall.
Outside of the rain, it will be very humid with dewpoints in the low 70s. Temperatures will be held in check by clouds and the rain but should still reach the low and mid 80s.
Spits of rain and areas of fog will be possible overnight with lows in the upper 60s to near 70 degrees.
Additional showers and storms are expected on Saturday. The activity should be more scattered, and the atmosphere a bit less primed for excessive rainfall.
Still, any areas that see particularly heavy rain today may be at risk for additional flooding concerns tomorrow should another heavy downpour hit the same area.
The afternoon hours will again be the primary window for showers and storms on Saturday.
Temperatures on Saturday will top out in the low 80s with a few pockets of mid 80s. Dewpoints will remain around or slightly above 70.
Remaining Unsettled
The region will be between weather systems on Sunday, resulting in an overall quiet and dry day.
There may still be a few stray spits of rain over the eastern Finger Lakes, mainly for areas east of Cayuga Lake. These should be minor, isolated showers with little impact.
Sunshine will return, mixing with summertime fair-weather clouds. Winds will be light, turning from the southwest to the northwest as the day goes on.
Temperatures will heat up again without the widespread clouds and precipitation, reaching a high in the mid and upper 80s. Dewpoints will start off near 70, but will drop as the winds shift, and may even reach the 50s for a brief time in some western areas.
Monday is uncertain as a slow moving front approaches from the north. If the front is fast enough, some late day showers and storms will be possible. A slightly more likely scenario is that any rain will hold off until Monday Night or Tuesday.
Assuming most or all of Monday is dry, temperatures should push into the upper 80s with a few places hitting 90 degrees. Dewpoints will be in the 60s.
Showers and storms are likely on Tuesday as the front slowly passes through. Given the slow-moving nature of the front and the heavy rain potential today and tomorrow, the flooding potential for next week will need to be watched closely.
Like Monday, Wednesday is uncertain due to the speed of the front. Showers and storms may linger, especially across the southern areas, but it is too far out to be sure.
Whenever the front moves into and through the region, temperatures will reset to the mid 70s, persisting for a few days behind the front into late next week.
More Information:
» Finger Lakes Weather Radar
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This graphic represents an average over the entire Finger Lakes region. Localized variations should be expected. Stay Updated With Email Alerts
