Frontal Boundary
A slow-moving frontal boundary will drop south across the region today and tomorrow, triggering showers and storms today and an area of rain on Tuesday.
This boundary extends west to east roughly across Lake Ontario this morning. An area of rain and storms over Canada has moved out over the northern waters of Lake Ontario. This area of precipitation is expected to stay out over the lake until it passes east of the Finger Lakes.
Meanwhile, it will be a rather sunny morning across our region, allowing temperatures to rise quickly into the 80s. Dewpoints will be in the upper half of the 60s while a light southwest wind blows.
The atmosphere will become favorable for storm development this afternoon, and the first few storm cells could pop up as early as the first part of the afternoon. As the afternoon wears on, isolated storm cells will increase in number and coverage.
The best chance for rain and storms will be after 5 PM and before 10 PM. The storms will start in the north and gradually shift southward, with individual storm cells moving east-southeast.
Lightning, strong winds, and some hail will be possible with the stronger storms. A severe thunderstorm watch may be needed later, and several warnings will probably be issued. However, the severe threat at this point does not appear to be on the same level as the several intense July events.
Still, as always, I will be keeping a close eye on things.
Rain showers may linger through the overnight but should mostly be out of the region by sunrise Tuesday. There may be some sun Tuesday morning, but clouds will be the overall ruler of the sky.
Tuesday will be cooler with the front passing to our south. Look for highs mainly in the mid 70s with dewpoints around 60 degrees.
Late in the day, low pressure will ride along the front, likely spreading an area of steadier rain into at least portions of the Finger Lakes. A narrow stripe of heavy rain is possible and is most likely somewhere across the southern half of the region.
This rain will mostly fall after sunset Tuesday, but once again should move out of the region before sunrise.
Between the rain and storms today and the potential rain late Tuesday, localized rainfall amounts over 2 inches are possible.
Watching Hurricane Debby
Hurricane Debby is making landfall southeast of Tallahassee, Florida, early Monday morning as I write this post. It will literally take all week for the center of Debby to merely make it to North Carolina, producing catastrophic flooding along the southeast coast as it meanders northward.
Meanwhile, high pressure will build into our region, keeping skies sunny and temperatures cooler for the middle of the week.
Wednesday will see increasing sunshine and highs in the mid 70s. Thursday will be a couple degrees warmer, with more areas in the upper 70s. Both days will start off in the mid 50s.
Our weather becomes uncertain on Friday into Saturday. Often times, when tropical systems move inland, the mere size of their sphere of influence can trigger new rainfall far from the center of the storm.
These are called Predecessor Rain Events (PREs) and can be high-impact rainfall events in and of themselves. However, they can be very difficult for the models to accurately predict.
While the main precipitation associated with Debby will eventually move north into the Mid-Atlantic and possibly the New England coastal regions, there are signs that a PRE may try to develop further north and west Friday into Saturday.
At least some models are showing heavy rain falling in the Finger Lakes from a PRE, mainly on Friday. Only a few models are showing no rain at all, with most falling somewhere in the middle.
How the rainfall today and tomorrow evolves could also play a role in how much rain the area could potentially take. In a worst-case scenario, flooding could become a concern late in the week, but it remains a highly uncertain, low confidence possibility.
Once again, I will be keeping a close eye on this and will bring the latest no-hype updates daily throughout the week.
Temperatures will remain mainly in the 70s through the weekend and possibly for much of next week as well. There will likely be a day or two with rain next week, but it is too early to pinpoint when that may be.
More Information:
» Finger Lakes Weather Radar
» Zip Code Forecasts
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Gail B. Dalmat
I had to skim two dozen articles to find the landfall for Debby! I knew it would be near where I spent the first year of teaching in Florida. It was “Steinhatchee,” a town named for the Steinhatchee River. About 15 miles as the crow flies from Cross City, in Dixie County. Dixie is bordered by the Gulf, the Steinhatchee River on the north, and the Suwannee River on the south.