Multiple weather hazards are possible in the Finger Lakes today, highlighted by the flash flooding potential from heavy rainfall.
The False Eastward Shift Rumor
For one reason or another, throughout the day yesterday, there was a consistent buzz about today’s weather shifting east, with the worst moving out of the Finger Lakes.
This idea likely generated from the “cone” graphic issued by the National Hurricane Center and republished by other sources. This graphic shows the path of the center of the storm, with a widening range of possibilities further away from the current center of the storm, giving the appearance of a cone.
On the official NHC version of the graphic, a black box with white font is front and center at the top of the graphic. This text says, “The cone contains the probable path of the storm center but does not show the size of the storm. Hazardous conditions can occur outside of the cone.”
With the cone graphic showing the storm center too far east, and with the public well-trained by media sources to expect frequent, drastic changes in the forecast with every new batch of model data, the rumor spread faster than true information could.
In truth, everything has shifted slightly west, not east.
Current observations and short-range model data support the low pressure circulation passing through the Finger Lakes, likely along a path that roughly leads from Elmira to Auburn to Oswego.
This path will place the band heaviest, steadiest rain across the western Finger Lakes, centered roughly on Steuben, Yates, Ontario, and Wayne Counties.
It also opens up the far eastern FLX to the threat of some severe storms with heavy downpours and a tornado threat.
Weather Threats
Starting with two bits of good news:
- The storm speed continues to increase, and much of the rain is now expected to wrap up during the mid and late afternoon hours. The increased storm speed is taking the top off the rain totals. While isolated pockets of 4-6 inch rain amounts are not totally out of the question, overall, this is turning more into a 1-3 inch event instead of 2-4+.
- As a whole, the western Finger Lakes are less saturated than the eastern Finger Lakes. The ground can take on more water, which should help reduce the flooding somewhat.
Now the bad news:
- Locally torrential downpours, enhanced by thunderstorm processes in the atmosphere, will still be possible over the eastern Finger Lakes. The rainfall rates in these downpours may be briefly greater than the rainfall rates further west, so the threat for flash flooding in these areas is still very real… but may be more localized in nature than previously expected.
- Any thunderstorms, even if they have very little to no lightning, will have the potential to rotate given the strong atmospheric winds and enhanced spin of the nearby low pressure. These storms may not seem violent on the surface, like a typical severe thunderstorm, but could still spin up a couple of tornadoes. This is most likely over eastern Chemung, Tioga, Tompkins, Cortland, southeastern Cayuga, and Onondaga counties.
- Non-thunderstorm winds will also be gusty in these same areas, with southeast gusts of 40-50 mph possible. With saturated soil, scattered power outages will be possible.
Weather Updates Feature
At the top of this post, you will notice a box for weather updates. This is a new feature I have been testing over the last few weeks and something I will be using heavily today.
These weather updates are like mini-blog posts that have a set time at which they will expire. Each update will contain a graphic and a brief text with the latest information.
I will be using the updates feature to post updated radar images every 1-2 hours, as well as other important updates. This allows me to post frequently, but not at the pace necessary for a dedicated live blog like I do for the rapid changes that come with a severe weather outbreak.
In addition to being embedded in this blog post, the weather updates also show up on the FLX Weather homepage.
Be sure to check back with this blog post or on the FLX weather homepage throughout the day today for the latest information.
Unfortunately, the weather updates feature is not available on the app, but I will start a “live event” on the app to post the same information.
Behind the Rain and Storms
As mentioned above, most of the active weather should pull out of the area during the mid to late afternoon hours, ending from southwest to northeast.
Scattered showers may linger this evening, but skies will clear overnight. Saturday will be dry and sunny.
Some scattered showers will move back in on Sunday. No heavy rain is expected, and most of the day will still be dry.
A few stray showers will be possible on Monday and Tuesday next week. The rain chances do not completely go away during the middle and late parts of next week but are low enough to exclude from the icon in the 7-day forecast graphic.
Temperatures will remain in the 70s through the weekend and most of next week. Late in the week, highs may start to approach 80 degrees once again.
More Information:
» Finger Lakes Weather Radar
» Zip Code Forecasts
» Get the FLX Weather Mobile App
This graphic represents an average over the entire Finger Lakes region. Localized variations should be expected.
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