Late Week Weather
High pressure is situated overhead today, continuing our stretch of quiet weather.
Skies are clear across the region as far as cloud cover goes, but there is some wildfire smoke passing through the region as well.
The core of this smoke plume will pass into New England from Canada, just clipping our region. Air quality indices from around the northeastern United States and southeastern Canada are in the yellow, moderate range, including here in the Finger Lakes. Though the smoke will linger much of the day, I am not anticipating anything worse for air quality.
Fair weather clouds will mix with the hazy sunshine during the daytime heating cycle later this morning and through the afternoon. No rain is expected in the area.
Temperatures will be mild today with all but a few hilltops getting into the 80s. Many of the typically warmer regions, such as the I-90 corridor and the broad valleys of the Southern Tier, will reach the mid 80s.
Winds will be light and variable today with the center of high pressure overhead.
Clear skies are expected again tonight with temperatures in the upper 50s and low 60s.
Friday will see an area of thin clouds mixing with and filtering the sunshine. A few stray showers may start to pop up towards sunset, mainly west of Keuka and Canandaigua Lakes.
Temperatures will add another degree or two to the highs, with mid 80s becoming the most common temperature reading. Dewpoints will come up a little as well, mainly sticking to the low 60s.
Wet, then Cool Weather
As high pressure departs the region and moves out over the northern Atlantic, it will cause an atmospheric pile-up.
Hurricane Ernesto, moving north toward Bermuda, will be blocked by the high and slow down. Adding to the traffic jam will be a low pressure swinging into the Great Lakes region.
With nowhere to go, this low will hang around for a few days before the atmosphere starts to move along again.
Between Saturday and Sunday, it is increasingly looking like Saturday will be the day with a fair bit of dry time between showers.
A pattern I have begun to notice is for showers and a few thunderstorms during the overnight Friday night into early Saturday morning. These then depart, leaving a few stray showers for much of Saturday before an increase in showers and storms late.
That may not be exactly how the day plays out, but it is an idea that is gaining momentum.
Sunday, however, is still looking quite showery throughout the day. The chances for thunderstorms will be lower, but a few rumbles will still be possible.
Monday may be the rainiest day of this pattern, with widespread showers throughout the day possible.
There is a small chance for a couple of gusty thunderstorm winds on Saturday, but otherwise, severe weather is not expected. Locally heavy downpours will be possible through the weekend, though. If the same area sees repeated downpours, rain amounts could exceed two inches on a very localized basis.
Temperatures will retreat through the weekend, with upper 70s Saturday, mid 70s Sunday, and low 70s on Monday. Dewpoints will be in the muggy 65-70 degree range Saturday and Sunday, but should gradually fall on Monday.
Sunshine returns for the middle of next week, but temperatures may struggle to even get above 70 degrees for a day or two. Gradual warming back toward 80 degrees will take place late in the week and next weekend.
More Information:
» Finger Lakes Weather Radar
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This graphic represents an average over the entire Finger Lakes region. Localized variations should be expected.
