Turning Unsettled
A large area of low pressure over the Upper Midwest will spawn a new low near Lake Erie tomorrow, which in turn will spawn a third low along the New Jersey coastline on Thursday.
This pattern will bring us an extended period of unsettled weather, but first, we will have another dry day today.
Clouds from this weather complex are already streaming into the region. The clouds are high in the atmosphere and mainly thin so far.
Sunshine will mix with the clouds to varying degrees throughout the day. At times, it may seem rather cloudy. Other times, the sun will shine through brightly.
Winds will be light today, if not completely calm at times. What little wind there is will come in from the east.
Afternoon highs will be a bit cooler than yesterday, but most areas should still be at or above 50 degrees. The valleys of the Southern Tier will be warmest, reaching a high in the mid 50s. A few hilltops will end up just shy of 50 degrees.
A small area of scattered showers will pass through the area this evening, tapering off after midnight. Not all areas will see rain, and most that do will see under a tenth of an inch.
It will be relatively mild tonight with most areas in the mid or at least low 40s. A few upper 30s may be found in and around Cortland County.
Wednesday will be rather cloudy, though a few breaks of sun here and there will be possible. A few spits of rain will also be possible.
Winds will be from the southeast and south, increasing to around 10 mph during the second half of the afternoon.
Southerly flow will give temperatures a boost with highs in the upper 50s. A few of the Southern Tier valleys may even hit 60 degrees.
Rain, and Maybe Snow
A widespread band of rain will march into the area from the southwest Wednesday evening. There may be an embedded band of heavier rain along the leading edge, and possibly even a couple claps of thunder and some gusty winds.
Rain will continue for a couple hours once it starts but should mostly push out of the area by dawn Thursday. Locally up to a half inch of rain may fall, but most areas will probably be closer to a quarter of an inch.
A period of dry weather is likely for the first part of Thursday, but as the third low begins to take shape along the New Jersey coast, precipitation should build back into the area Thursday afternoon and especially Thursday night.
Winds will also turn to the northwest and increase as the low develops with speeds over 10 mph by the late afternoon. Cool air will build in, with highs Thursday mainly in the mid 40s, but falling to the 30s after sunset.
Rain will mix with and turn to snow based on location and elevation Thursday night. The current thinking is that roughly the southern half of the region will have the best chance for seeing precipitation mix with or turn to snow.
Elevations above 1200 feet will have a shot at some minor accumulations Thursday night, while elevations above 1500 feet could see several inches of snowfall.
As is often the case with elevation dependent, early and late season snow events, uncertainty is very high and impacts will vary greatly over very short distances.
This event also has the added uncertainty of where the heaviest precipitation will develop, based on the location of the developing low pressure system.
Whatever snow does accumulate will be a very wet snow that will be heavy to move and lift. Most roads, however, will probably remain wet or just a bit slushy, except at the highest of elevations.
Precipitation should become lighter and more scattered Friday, with most areas turning back to all rain early in the morning. The showers may still be frequent, even if the precipitation isn’t a solid area over the entire region at any given moment.
High temperatures Friday will only be in the low 40s with stiff north and northwest winds. Top gusts should be around 30 mph.
Showers will persist into Saturday and Sunday, likely becoming more and more dependent on lake enhancement off Lake Ontario. The showers will also likely become lighter and more sporadic as time goes on, so that by Sunday, only occasional spits of rain should be expected.
Winds will stay out of the northwest, dipping in speed Saturday but kicking up again on Sunday. Top gusts Sunday could be over 30 mph.
High temperatures this weekend will stick to the lower half of the 40s with nighttime temperatures in the low and mid 30s.
Temperatures should get a brief boost early next week but are then expected to settle into a cold pattern starting mid-week. By the time the calendar flips to December next weekend, highs may consistently be in the 30s with chances for snow.
More Information:
» Finger Lakes Weather Radar
» Zip Code Forecasts
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This graphic represents an average over the entire Finger Lakes region. Localized variations should be expected.
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