Pre-Thanksgiving Weather
An active weather pattern will continue across our area for the foreseeable future, with one system departing today and another arriving tomorrow night into Thursday.
The cold front associated with today’s system is moving through the Finger Lakes early this morning as I write this. The vast majority of the precipitation with this system is ahead of the front and departing the area.
The front itself is marked by a change in wind direction to the west and a notable increase in wind speed. Winds will continue to increase through the morning, peaking during the midday and early afternoon.
These west winds will have speeds of 15-20 mph with gusts of 30-40 mph. The strongest winds will be found in the western Finger Lakes, mainly for areas west of about Canandaigua Lake.
Temperatures will peak during the later morning hours before cooler air starts to build in. Look for highs in the upper 40s and low 50s, followed by a drop of about five degrees through the mid afternoon.
There may be a few breaks of sunshine before the day is done, with breaks in the clouds continuing into the evening. Gradually, lake effect clouds off Lake Erie will build in overnight with a few small bands of light lake effect snow.
No more than a light powder-sugar coating of snow is expected in a few localized areas. Overnight temperatures will be around 30 degrees.
Wednesday will generally be a quiet day. A few more flurries will be possible early on and sunshine will mix with clouds, mainly during the morning. Clouds will increase during the afternoon.
West winds will remain a bit blustery, but not as strong as today. Top gusts for most areas should be between 20-25 mph.
Temperatures will top out in the mid 40s for most areas, though higher elevations will be closer to 40 degrees.
Thanksgiving Day Rain and Snow
Low pressure will move through the Ohio Valley Wednesday Night and into the Mid-Atlantic region on Thursday. This should spread precipitation into the area by midnight Wednesday, continuing throughout Thanksgiving Day on Thursday.
Like last week’s event, elevation will play a key role in precipitation type and snow amounts.
The heaviest precipitation will fall in a relatively narrow band that tracks from southwest to northeast, likely impacting parts of the region. Slight adjustments to the path of the low will have a large impact on exactly where this band sets up.
If the low comes further north, the heaviest precipitation may end up mostly rain across the northern Finger Lakes. If the low jogs south, the heaviest may end up over Pennsylvania.
How the low evolves will also be a factor, with the core of the precipitation possibly becoming more intense as it passes through the region, thus favoring the eastern Finger Lakes for higher snow amounts.
All in all, this is another complex system sure to bring a wide variety of conditions and impacts to our area. Right now, the greatest chance for significant impacts aligns with many of the same areas that were hit hardest last week.
Snow totals will probably not be as high as last week’s event, but the high degree of uncertainty cannot be overstated.
Travel on Thursday will be a complicated matter. Road conditions are dictated not only by the weather but also treatment plans and traffic loads. With the holiday, this adds an extra layer of uncertainty in understanding how all these factors will interplay.
As always, I will continue to hone down this forecast and should have more confidence and details with tomorrow morning’s post. I also remain accessible to you, so please send me your questions. Do note that I have a busy day today and will frequently be away from my computer and phone, so my response time may be a bit slower than usual today. But I will get to your question!
Behind the Rain and Snow
Precipitation will wind down Thursday evening with nighttime temperatures dropping into the 20s. Black ice could be a concern with the day’s slush and wet freezing after sunset.
Friday will have some scattered snow showers off Lake Erie, but with little if any accumulation for most areas. Temperatures will be on the decline with highs in the mid and upper 30s.
Lake effect snow will be ongoing and heavy in the snowbelts south of Buffalo and Watertown this weekend, but here in the Finger Lakes, the weather will be quiet.
A stray snow shower may be possible here and there as the bands fluctuate, but for the most part, it will be dry with sun and clouds.
Temperatures will continue to fall, with highs in the mid 30s Saturday and low 30s Sunday. Nighttime temperatures will be far down into the 20s with pockets of 10s.
This will become about what we should expect day to day moving forward, at least through early December. Daily highs will have a hard time getting above freezing in many areas with nighttime lows in the 10s and 20s.
Snow will be an on and off occurrence as weather systems pass through and lake effect follows. However, beyond Thursday’s snow, there do not seem to be any big snow makers on the horizon for our immediate area.
More Information:
» Finger Lakes Weather Radar
» Zip Code Forecasts
» Get the FLX Weather Mobile App
This graphic represents an average over the entire Finger Lakes region. Localized variations should be expected.
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