Thanksgiving Weather Forecast
Skies will be mixed today across the Finger Lakes, but the weather will stay dry, making for an ideal travel day throughout the region.
Clouds of varying thickness will come and go throughout the day today as a strong jet stream remains in place, stretching from the southwestern United States to the Mid-Atlantic.
Low pressure is developing this morning over northeastern New Mexico and the panhandles of Texas and Oklahoma. That system will arrive overnight tonight and impact our Thanksgiving.
Before that, tough, it will be a tranquil day with lighter winds than yesterday and highs in the low and mid 40s. Even this evening will be quiet, with temperatures dropping into the 30s.
Rain and snow will move in after midnight but before sunrise. Precipitation will be steady and light to moderate through the morning before gradually winding down Thursday afternoon.
While this will be another elevation dependent event, there are several key factors that will make this system much less meaningful than last week’s system.
First, the heaviest bands of precipitation are unlikely to set up over our region, instead favoring the Catskills area.
Second, the bulk of the precipitation will fall during the daytime hours. Without the heavier precipitation rates, it will be more difficult for snow to overcome the marginal temperatures and accumulate quickly.
And lastly, while last week’s system was slow moving and stalled out for a time, Thursday’s system will be progressive and quick moving, producing maybe a third of the total precipitation as last week’s system did.
This should all add up to a relatively easy to navigate system, especially in the context of a typical winter in Upstate New York.
Still, some roads across the southern parts of the region may get slick, especially early in the morning. Adding some extra time to your travels and slowing down may be necessary.
As far as snow accumulations go, higher elevations, mainly above 1400 feet, will see 2-5 inches. Areas above 1000 feet will see a coating to an inch or two. The highest amounts will probably end up in and around Cortland County, where slightly higher precipitation amounts are expected.
If you did not see snow from last week’s system, you are very unlikely to see snow accumulation tomorrow. And areas that only saw an inch or two last week will be hard pressed to match that this time around.
Any slush or water on the roads by evening will have a chance to turn to some patchy black ice as temperatures gradually drop below freezing.
finger lakes weather 7-day forecast wed nov 27 | wed, clouds, some sun mid 40 | thur, areas of rain and snow near 40 | fri, scattered snow showers upper 30 | sat, sun and clouds a flurry? mid 30 | sun, late snow showers low 30 | mon, a few snow showers low 30 | tues, a few snow showers low 30
Wintry Pattern Sets Up
Cold air will steadily build in over the following days, and by Sunday, highs will be struggling to get much above freezing.
As the cold air pours in, the warm waters of the Great Lakes will respond by producing areas of lake effect snow.
Wind direction is key in predicting where lake effect snow falls. On Friday, winds over Lake Erie will be westerly, which will likely send a spray of snow showers across the southern half of the Finger Lakes.
Temperatures will top out in the mid and upper 30s, so there should be little to no daytime snow accumulations. Still, brief coatings of snow and reduced visibility will be possible on and off.
Meanwhile, the northern half of the region should be mainly quiet, with some sun poking in and out of clouds. Travel along I-90 on Friday looks smooth and easy going.
Winds will become more southwesterly on Saturday, removing snow from the Finger Lakes area and leaving a mix of sun and clouds.
However, travel along I-90 from Buffalo to Erie will be impacted by lake snows, as will I-81 south of Watertown.
Snow will remain in those snowbelts Saturday night into early Sunday before winds start to shift toward the northwest. Lake effect off Lake Ontario will move into our region late in the day and persist into Monday.
These look to mainly be snow showers, but some localized minor accumulations may be possible since temperatures will generally be near or below freezing.
Lake snows will mix with more widespread, light snows next week as a couple of weak weather systems move through. Temperatures will remain locked into the upper 20s and low 30s for highs.
The same basic weather pattern looks to remain intact the following week as well, making for a cold first half of December.
More Information:
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This graphic represents an average over the entire Finger Lakes region. Localized variations should be expected.
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Tom Ames
Drew: we are planning to drive from Ithaca to Bucks County, PA on Thursday. Any recommendations on when to start? We normally take 79 to Binghamton then 81 to Scranton, then 380 down through the Pocono’s. Thanks.
Tom Ames
Meteorologist Drew Montreuil
I would probably leave on the later end of your window. That may allow more of the snow in northern PA to turn over to rain. You’ll likely want to add some buffer time, though I would expect those main roads to stay in pretty good shape.