Lake Effect Snow
Cold northwest winds will continue to be gusty across the Finger Lakes Wednesday and Thursday, leading to areas of lake effect snow.
While the snow today will not be as widespread as yesterday, there will still be occasional squalls moving through the region, especially this morning.
The least snowy part of the day will likely be the midday and first half of the afternoon. Later in the day, snow will start to increase again, particularly in the northeastern parts of the region.
Most areas should see minimal accumulation during the daytime hours today, though the morning squalls may rapidly put down half inch to an inch.
Technically, the winds will be a bit lighter than yesterday, but the difference will be negligible. Gusts over 30 mph will be likely, causing areas of blowing and drifting and cold wind chills near or below zero.
Afternoon highs today will generally stay near or below 20 degrees. Some higher elevations may struggle to even reach 15 degrees.
Snow tonight will mainly stay in the northeast, impacting Onondaga, northern Cortland, northern and central Cayuga, and eastern Wayne counties. A couple inches of snow is likely overnight in these areas with little elsewhere.
The snow will continue to spread south and westward Thursday morning, possibly making it as far as Penn Yan and Elmira. Much of Seneca and Tompkins counties, as well as the remaining portions of the counties listed above, should see steady snow.
Models indicate the snow will drop off quickly in the afternoon as drier air moves over Lake Ontario. The possibility of snow continuing longer than the models show should at least be entertained, as northwest winds will remain in place and lake effect often lingers longer than expected.
Snow amounts Thursday morning will be a general 1-4 inches across the areas described above.
Winds will increase slightly on Thursday as well, coming in stronger than today, weaker than yesterday, but all in all, no different in impacts. Temperatures will be a bit warmer with most areas near or slightly above 20 degrees.
Break from the Lake Effect
Dry air should continue to build in on Friday, leading to a quiet, albeit cloudy, day. There could be a little sun early on in a few areas before clouds ahead of a non-lake effect weather system build in.
Highs will be in the mid 20s on Friday. Winds will be mercifully light, if not nearly calm at times. What little wind there is will be from the southwest.
Widespread snow will move in Friday night, mainly after midnight, and continue into early Saturday morning. A broad 1-3 inches is likely across the entire region with a few places maybe seeing up to 4 inches.
The widespread snow should end by mid-morning Saturday with a few scattered snow showers lingering behind, especially near Lake Ontario.
Highs will be in the upper 20s and low 30s. West and northwest winds will kick up a bit, but gusts should remain under 30 mph.
Sunday and possibly Monday look cloudy, but generally quiet. Temperatures will hover near or slightly above 30 degrees. This will be the best chance for some areas to reach the freezing mark in the foreseeable future.
Cold air will start to move back in by Tuesday, and by next Thursday, it will be just as cold as it is today.
Winds next week are not expected to be as strong and will likely shift around from day to day. This leads to low confidence on when and where lake effect may be next week.
There may be another brief moderation in temperatures next weekend before another shot of cold.
Using data from the Cornell observation station outside of Ithaca, which runs back to the 1890s, there is a chance that a top-10 longest streak of consecutive days below freezing could be attained.
January 4th was the first reported day of the current streak, and if it remains below freezing there through January 24th, it will be tied with several other days.
The longest such streak is 27 days, set in January and February 1985. The longest recent streak ranks third at 23 days in February and March 2015.
More Information:
» Finger Lakes Weather Radar
» Zip Code Forecasts
» Get the FLX Weather Mobile App
This graphic represents an average over the entire Finger Lakes region. Localized variations should be expected.
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