Early icy mix tapers off and temperatures warm

Late Week Weather

As of 7AM, the radar shows a mix of precipitation across the Finger Lakes, with the bulk of the steadiest precipitation already departing to the east and north.

Scattered bouts of precipitation, mainly sleet and freezing rain, still exist but should also move along fairly quickly. Drier conditions are moving into western NY and western PA and should overtake the Finger Lakes through the mid-morning hours.

Temperatures will also rise steadily this morning and should climb above freezing as the drier air moves in. This should result in quickly improving road conditions later this morning and into the afternoon.

There may even be some breaks of sun here and there. Most of the time it will be cloudy, though, with a few spits of rain. Highs this afternoon will reach the upper 30s and low 40s.

South and southeast winds will continue to be blustery through the morning with a few gusts around 40 mph. Wind speeds will drop slightly for the afternoon as winds turn more southwesterly.

Tonight, winds will turn to the west, then west-northwest with blustery conditions persisting. Temperatures will drop back into the mid 20s with some areas of lake effect snow. Overnight accumulations will range from nothing to an inch or two.

On Friday, winds will turn a bit more westerly and will increase again. Gusts of 35-40 mph will be common throughout the day.

Lake effect will consolidate over the far northeastern corner of the region, mainly north of Syracuse. The rest of the area should be dry with a few breaks of sun between clouds.

Temperatures will mainly hold steady in the mid 20s throughout the day, then drop to the mid 10s Friday night.

There will be little change through the first part of Saturday with some limited lake effect in the far northeast and quiet conditions elsewhere. Temperatures will work their way into the upper 20s to near 30 degrees.

Active Weekend Weather

Another impactful weather system will move in Saturday evening and depart by early Sunday morning.

There are two main scenarios with this system based on the exact path of the low.

A further south track would bring all snow to the region with a moderate snowfall likely. Accumulations in the 4-8 inch range would be possible.

If the track is further north, another icy mix would be possible. This would cut down on snow totals, but travel would still be hazardous.

Over the last day, the models have begun to trend to the south, favoring the all-snow solution.

However, this is a bias I consistently see in the models about three days out, and most times, they come back north about 24 hours before the system arrives. The models also frequently underestimate the intrusion of cold air.

So, while most weather services will probably start showing all snow on Saturday as they feed model data straight into the public-facing apps and webpages, I am sticking with the warmer, icier scenario.

For me, the main question is whether the far northern areas, namely north of the Thruway, will be far enough north to stay snow, which is what the models have been hinting at all week until they went south and cold over the last day.

Regardless, Saturday night and early Sunday morning will be difficult for travel.

Snow showers will linger on Sunday as lake effect kicks in. Another inch or two may be possible.

By evening, the lake effect should consolidate in those same far northeastern areas, leaving just a few stray flurries across most of the region for the Super Bowl parties.

There will be a couple more systems to watch next week. One may clip the area with some snow late Tuesday and Tuesday night. Another may bring mixed precipitation toward Thursday.

Both of these have high hype potential but are very uncertain this far in advance. Hype seems to increase when we get a series of meaningful systems right in a row, so be on the lookout for bad information.

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This graphic represents an average over the entire Finger Lakes region. Localized variations should be expected.

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