First System and Lake Effect
A complex weather system will impact the Finger Lakes region tonight into Thursday, though most of the heavy precipitation will fall outside of the region.
Strong winds will probably be the more notable impact, peaking during the overnight hours.
The wind will be light during the day today but will turn to the south and quickly increase this evening. Wind speeds over 20 mph are possible with gusts of 40-50 mph.
A few of the hilltops between Syracuse and Cortland, as well as in the Bristol Hills, may see a few gusts over 50 mph.
The wind will weaken toward sunrise and for Thursday morning as it turns more to the southwest. Another increase in wind speed is expected Thursday afternoon as winds turn to the west with gusts of 35-45 mph.
Temperatures will take an atypical path over the next 36 hours as a result of these winds. After rising to the low 30s and upper 20s this afternoon, overnight temperatures will push into the mid and upper 30s. Further warming into the low and mid 40s will take place by midday Thursday, only to drop through the 30s Thursday afternoon.
An area of light snow will move into the Finger Lakes this afternoon and early this evening as the warmer air starts to push in. Only a coating to an inch or so is expected. This will be followed by the potential for some on and off sleet showers this evening and overnight.
However, for the most part, the nighttime hours will probably be more dry than icy. And with temperatures generally well above freezing early Thursday, ice is not a huge concern for the morning commute outside of perhaps a few cold pockets.
Precipitation will remain light and spotty on Thursday with mainly rain showers through the morning and early afternoon and ending as a few flurries late Thursday afternoon and evening.
Later Thursday night into Friday morning, lake effect squalls will develop southeast of Lake Ontario. Wayne, Cayuga, Cortland, and Onondaga counties may all see some accumulation overnight, with a coating to an inch in bordering counties.
The snow will consolidate into a single band Friday morning and persist into the afternoon. This band should be in or very close to Syracuse, also impacting areas of Cayuga County north of the Thruway and northeastern Wayne County.
Localized heavy snow totals are possible with this band with isolated amounts to a foot. Outside of this band, though, Friday will be a quieter day, with some breaks of sun and a few wind gusts to 30 mph.
Active Weekend, Cold Next Week
Another complex system will quickly move in and impact both Saturday and Sunday.
This system will start out with widespread snow on Saturday. The snow will be steady but lighter during the morning before increasing in intensity during the afternoon hours. Accumulations will be on the order of 2-3 inches for most areas with a few amounts of 4 inches.
This snow will be in response to another push of milder air. Temperatures should be near or just above freezing Saturday afternoon, making the snow that falls wet and harder to accumulate. Road conditions will likely vary based on traffic loads and treatment plans, but the warmer temperatures will help.
Temperatures will push a little warmer Saturday night, reaching the mid 30s. Precipitation will be lighter, but will be a mix of rain, sleet, snow, and pockets of freezing rain for those stuck in the low 30s.
A strong low pressure will track nearly overhead on Sunday. The exact path of this low is very important, as small changes could have big impacts on the weather we see.
At this time, with the low overhead, heavy snow is expected to be contained to our northwest over Canada. Periods of rain will be likely, with just a couple degrees saving us from freezing rain, ending with snow later in the day.
Again, it is very important to stress the high degree of uncertainty this far in advance and the sensitivity of what we experience to small changes in the path of the low.
Regardless of how Sunday plays out, cold air will ultimately flood back in on strong winds. Wind gusts on Monday may again push toward 50 mph from the west. With highs only in the mid 10s, wind chills will likely be sub-zero throughout the day.
Cold air and gusty winds will persist into Tuesday. Some limited lake effect snow will also be possible on both days, but the strong winds and wind direction should prevent significant snow in our immediate area.
Temperatures will slowly moderate through the remainder of next week.
More Information:
» Finger Lakes Weather Radar
» Zip Code Forecasts
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char
Having lived in the Finger Lakes since 1970 I guess I can say I’ve just about seen it all and in
that time the weather has really changed. I appreciate your site very much. Keep up the good
work