Active weekend weather awaits with snow, ice, and rain

Weekend Weather Details

High pressure will slide through the area on Friday, only to be replaced with a strong weather system that will affect both Saturday and Sunday.

A few lake effect snow showers are scattered about the Finger Lakes this morning, with a more impressive band of lake effect along the borders of Cayuga-Oswego and Onondaga-Oswego counties.

That band of lake effect will drift further north and dissipate later today. The stray snow showers about the Finger Lakes this morning will also dissipate sooner rather than later.

There will be breaks of sun in and out of clouds today. Later this afternoon, clouds out ahead of the weekend weather system will build in, thin at first but thickening overnight.

West winds may gust to 30 mph this morning but will gradually weaken this afternoon before becoming nearly calm this evening. Southeast winds will develop after midnight but will remain light.

Temperatures will reach the mid 20s this afternoon, then fall into the 10s tonight.

Snow will break out across the region Saturday during the mid to late morning, quickly becoming steady at a moderate to heavy rate. Snow will continue well into the afternoon but will likely start to change over to sleet in the hours surrounding sunset.

General snow and sleet accumulations of 2-4 inches, but with some locally higher amounts, are likely by sunset. Afternoon highs will be around 30 degrees.

Sleet will then go over to freezing rain Saturday evening and night as warm air moves in aloft but is slower to move in at the surface.

Eventually, rain will become the primary precipitation type between midnight and sunrise, though pockets of freezing rain will persist into Sunday morning. Some areas could see over a tenth of an inch of ice from freezing rain by Sunday morning.

As expected, the models have recovered from their southward bias and now are back to bringing the center of low pressure overhead on Sunday. This should result in temperatures briefly pushing toward 40 degrees with rain throughout the region during the late morning and early afternoon on Sunday.

However, like yesterday, a cold front will move through during the afternoon, knocking temperatures back quickly.

While northern and western areas have the best chance for a couple inches of snow as the low departs, the whole region will be susceptible to a flash freeze later in the afternoon or early evening, making travel and walking hazardous.

While uncertainties in the details remain, and the small chance for a more southern, snowier scenario cannot be totally dismissed, confidence in the above scenario, which was the most likely all along, is increasing.

I will likely have at least one more update on this system Saturday morning. Stay tuned.

Cold Next Week

As already stated, cold air will rapidly move in behind the low as it departs late Sunday. By Monday morning, temperatures will be back into the 10s.

Winds will also substantially increase late Sunday and especially into Monday. Winds Sunday night will be from the northwest with gusts of 30-40 mph. On Monday, winds will be more westerly and stronger. Top gusts may exceed 50 mph locally.

Temperatures will only rise a few degrees on Monday with highs around or below 20 degrees. With the strong winds, it will feel close to or below zero throughout the day.

In addition to the cold and wind, some lake effect snow showers will be scattered about on Monday. While accumulations will be minor, anything that falls will easily blow and drift, reducing visibility and causing slick areas on the roads.

Most of the snow should dissipate on Tuesday, and though still gusty, winds will not be as strong.

However, temperatures will be colder, with lows in the single digits and highs in the mid 10s. Morning wind chills may be in the -10 to -20 range, while afternoon wind chills will be 0 to -10. Wind gusts will peak around 35 mph and will be strongest in the morning.

Temperatures will settle in with morning lows in the single digits and highs around 20 for the middle of next week. A few snow showers will be possible on Wednesday.

Models continue to show a weather system moving up the east coast on Thursday, but are inconsistent and split on whether this will impact our area or not. If everything came together perfectly, a big-ticket snow could be possible, but it remains far too early to tell and more extreme scenarios are always assumed to be less likely until shown otherwise.

As we head into the final week of February, temperatures may climb back toward the 30s with a quieter weather pattern possible.

More Information:

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This graphic represents an average over the entire Finger Lakes region. Localized variations should be expected.

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