Temperatures begin to warm again, but weekend setup remains highly variable and uncertain

Late Week Weather

Temperatures will start to warm up again after a snowy day yesterday.

Clear skies dominate the region this morning and will persist through the early afternoon. Clouds will gradually move in this afternoon.

The atmosphere today will be very dry. As temperatures rise, dewpoints will fall. The increasing gap between the two will result in low relative humidity values between 25-35 percent.

Anytime the air is this dry during the late fall, winter, or early spring, the brush fire risk will increase. Thankfully, winds today will be relatively light, somewhat limiting the risk. Fires will still be easy to start and spread, so use due caution.

Wind gusts will be 20-25 mph, mainly coming in from the west.

Afternoon highs will mostly be in the mid and upper 40s. Typically warmer areas along I-90 and I-390, and along I-86 from Bath to Binghamton will be near or slightly above 50 degrees.

A small weather system will move through this evening with a few scattered showers. A few higher elevations east of Cayuga Lake could see a little snow at first before turning to rain. Precipitation will be spotty, short-lived, and generally light.

Friday will be cloudier than today, but some breaks of sunshine will still be possible, especially early on in the day.

Afternoon highs will be slightly warmer than today, topping out in the low and mid 50s. Areas along the shore of Lake Ontario will stick to the mid 40s.

Winds will be nearly calm through the morning, then will turn to the south and east for the afternoon, remaining generally light.

By the late afternoon, rain showers will begin to develop over the region. A period of evening rain with a few heavier downpours is possible.

This rain will be in response to the development of a sharp frontal boundary over the region. This boundary will have a major role in Saturday’s weather.

Highly Variable Weekend Weather

Models continue to vary on how far north the frontal boundary will move, and how stable it will be during the daytime hours.

To the north of the front, temperatures will be in the 40s, possibly even 30s at times. To the south, 50s, 60s, and even 70s are possible.

Along the immediate frontal boundary, temperatures may vary by as much as 20 degrees over as many miles. Not only does this make pinpointing the temperatures nearly impossible near the boundary, but individual locations may have large temperature swings back and forth during the daytime hours Saturday.

The boundary is most likely to be over the northern parts of the region, or just north of the area. Again, though, its position may fluctuate throughout the day, and a jog south seems likely late Saturday into Saturday night.

Near the front, scattered rain showers will also be possible. If the front goes far enough south, some freezing rain may be possible Saturday night for areas north of I-90.

The further south of the front, the lower the chances for precipitation and the increased chances for some sunshine.

Areas south of the front will also see a notable increase in wind speeds, with west and southwest gusts as high as 40 mph. Winds along the front, however, will be light to calm.

The front will linger over the area on Sunday but is favored to be a bit further north. If this pans out, there will be an increased chance of 70 degree temperatures. Northern areas will likely remain cooler, especially near Lake Ontario, regardless.

Another round of rain showers will be possible late Sunday into early Monday. Showers and thunderstorms are likely Monday afternoon as a cold front moves through. It will be windy as well, so we will have to keep an eye on any storms that develop.

Temperatures will be knocked back to near 40 degrees on Tuesday with morning sun and some afternoon clouds. Wednesday will return to near 50 degrees and Thursday could be at or above 60 degrees again.

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This graphic represents an average over the entire Finger Lakes region. Localized variations should be expected.

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