Flooding, Severe Risks
As day after day of rain continues across the Finger Lakes, we are starting to reach the threshold where flooding is becoming a concern.
Heavy rain last night in Steuben County produced flooding that closed several roads, some of which are still at least partially close early this morning.
There is good agreement on the models that additional heavy rain across the region late today into the overnight is likely.
Before we get there, though, there are some early morning showers lifting north-northeast through the region. These showers are just ahead of an atmospheric boundary that will serve as a focal point for the latter rain and storms.
While most of the morning rain should end by mid-morning, a few on and off showers will continue to be possible through the midday and early afternoon, mainly near and slightly east of Cayuga Lake, where the boundary will stall out.
A bundle of atmospheric energy will move along this boundary later in the afternoon, leading to an increase in rain and thunderstorms.
A few of the thunderstorms may have strong winds or hail. The best chance for severe weather will again be near and east of Cayuga Lake, mainly during the 5-7 PM window.
These thunderstorms will also contain heavy rain. Heavy rain will also spread further west, encompassing most of the rest of the Finger Lakes. Areas of heavy rain will persist well into the overnight before moving north of the Thruway early Wednesday morning.
Localized rain amounts could exceed 2 inches with pockets of 3 inches or more possible.
This would be enough to lead to some areas of flooding any time from late this afternoon into Wednesday morning. As was the case last night, the flooding could be significant enough to close some roads or cause isolated instances of property damage.
As a whole, the flooding risk is both higher and more widespread than the severe risk.
Besides the rain, it will be mild today with highs in the upper 60s and low 70s. Overnight lows will eventually drop to near 50 degrees as winds start to shift overnight behind the disturbance.
Wet and Cool
Pockets of rain may linger Wednesday morning, particularly across the northeastern quadrant of the region. Eventually, though, the rain will lift northeast and out of the area.
The rest of Wednesday will just have a few showers here and there. Northwest winds will mean temperatures will be a bit lower with highs in the low and mid 60s.
Thursday will remain cloudy, with a few showers here and there. As a whole, it will not be nearly as rainy as today and days prior.
However, it will be quite cool with morning lows in the 40s and afternoon highs struggling into the low 50s. Winds will be from the north, but not overly strong.
Friday may see a few areas slip into the upper 30s in the morning while others stay above 40 degrees.
It will be another rainy day as low pressure passes through. There is a chance some of this could be heavy, so depending on how today unfolds, we may need to watch Friday as well for flooding.
The rain on Friday is not an absolute certainty, though, with a sharp western edge likely. The further west, the higher the chances that most of the rain will end up elsewhere.
The forecast for Saturday is trending drier as the low pressure moves out of the area. A few morning showers still look possible, but there may be some sun by the end of the day.
Temperatures will start to bounce back a little with highs in the upper 60s if Saturday ends up mostly dry.
Sunshine is likely on Sunday with highs at least in the upper 60s. Sunny weather will continue into Monday with a shot at highs in the 70s.
If warmer air is at all delayed, Sunday and Monday mornings could raise some frost concerns thanks to the clear skies. As of now, however, most areas are expected to be in the 40s.
Quiet, warm weather will persist throughout next week. Temperatures will commonly be in the 70s and I would not be surprised to see some pockets of 80s showing up.
During the mid to late week, it will be warm and moist enough for a couple pop-up thunderstorms, but without much going on in the atmosphere to trigger said storms, they may be quite hard to come by.
More Information:
» Finger Lakes Weather Radar
» Zip Code Forecasts
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This graphic represents an average over the entire Finger Lakes region. Localized variations should be expected.
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