Warm and Some Storms
There will be a significant difference in the weather Friday and Saturday compared to Sunday and next week thanks to a cold front.
Friday will be on the warm side of the front, but is already off to a bit of a stormy start.
A line of rain and thunderstorms is moving into the Finger Lakes early this morning, the leftovers of widespread severe weather last night across Wisconsin and Michigan.
As of 7 AM, the line was showing significant signs of weakening already. This should rapidly continue over the next couple of hours as it moves through the remainder of the region.
Most areas should still see some rain, but a few eastern locations may miss out. Thunder will mainly be limited to areas west of Seneca Lake.
And while the line prompted a few early morning severe thunderstorm warnings in western New York, no additional severe weather is expected.
Behind the rain this morning, skies should turn partly cloudy again and temperatures will rise quickly. Highs today will top out around 80 degrees with muggy dewpoints well into the 60s.
This will prime the atmosphere for additional storm development this afternoon, but there are questions as to how much of a triggering mechanism will be present in the atmosphere to initiate storm development.
One possibility is that storms will develop along a subtle boundary left behind by this morning’s line. If this boundary is strong enough, scattered storms will develop with a chance for consolidation into a new line over the eastern Finger Lakes.
It is also possible, however, that any triggers will be too weak to produce more than a few isolated storms.
Generally speaking, the eastern half of the Finger Lakes has a greater chance for storms this afternoon than the western half.
Regardless, any storms that do pop up will have the chance to contain frequent lightning, heavy downpours, and perhaps some small hail and/or gusty winds.
The evening hours should be quiet, but some additional showers and storms will be possible during the overnight and early morning hours. These will again be leftovers from more robust storms to our west that will develop this afternoon and evening.
A final round of showers and storms will be possible Saturday afternoon as the cold front comes through. Again, a few storms could have some strong winds.
Pattern Change
Temperatures on Saturday will still be warm, starting out near 60 degrees and topping out in the mid 70s.
Behind the front, winds will turn to the west late Saturday and to the northwest by Sunday morning.
Some of the winds on Sunday may be blustery, with a few gusts over 30 mph.
Rain showers are likely on Sunday as the parent low responsible for the cold front passes to our north. The chances for steady rain will be highest over the northeastern quadrant of the region.
Temperatures Sunday will start around 50 and only make it into the upper 50s. Clouds and wind should hold temperatures in the low and mid 40s Sunday night.
Winds will lessen on Monday and some sun should break through the clouds. Skies may even clear for a time Monday night.
After daytime highs in the mid and upper 50s on Monday, if skies do clear Monday night, temperatures could drop into the 30s. I do think at least some of the colder pockets should be concerned about frost Monday night into Tuesday morning, and a more widespread frost risk could still develop.
Clouds will increase again on Tuesday. While a late shower cannot be ruled out, most areas should stay dry. Afternoon highs will only make it to the low and mid 50s.
Rain will move back in on Wednesday. Temperatures will most likely stick to the 50s, but if it rains steadily much of the day, even mid 50s may be too generous of a forecast.
Temperatures should remain in the 50s for the late week as well, only starting to creep back above 60 degrees by Memorial Day the following Monday.
More Information:
» Finger Lakes Weather Radar
» Zip Code Forecasts
» Get the FLX Weather Mobile App
This graphic represents an average over the entire Finger Lakes region. Localized variations should be expected.
Leave a Reply