Canadian Wildfire Smoke
Clouds have departed the region thanks to high pressure over the Ohio Valley pushing this weekend’s low out of the picture.
However, this pattern has opened our region up to the influence of wildfire smoke from central Canada.
Already, some thin smoke has wafted into the region high in the atmosphere. This will slowly increase today, becoming more noticeable, especially later in the afternoon. A brilliant red sunset is possible tonight as a result.
Outside of the smoke, skies will remain clear today, tonight, and for the next couple of days.
Smoke will continue to increase overnight and should be very visually noticeable tomorrow. Some of the smoke will likely make it down to the surface, making it notable by smell and possibly impacting air quality somewhat.
While this should not be anything like the smoke two years ago in June, there is very limited model data to project the location of smoke, and even less to project the impact it may have.
The fires are much further away from us than they were two years ago, which should be a benefit when considering air quality.
While the smoke models do not go out as far as Wednesday, the widespread coverage of the smoke on Tuesday across eastern North America leads me to think it will be similar to Tuesday.
Winds will be from the northwest today at speeds up to 10 mph. Light south winds will take over on Tuesday, with slightly stronger south winds on Wednesday turning to the southwest late.
Temperatures will undergo a rapid warming, though the smoke may be enough to hold temperatures back a couple degrees. Look for highs today in the upper 60s and low 70s. Tuesday will be in the low 70s to near 80 degrees, while Wednesday should at least reach the low, if not mid 80s.
Nighttime temperatures will still be a bit cool tonight, dipping into the upper 40s. Tuesday and Wednesday night will be warm, with lows near 60 Tuesday night and in the mid 60s Wednesday night.
Rain Returns Late Week
The end of the week will turn rainy for a couple of days, including the chance for some thunderstorms.
Showers will move in Thursday morning, transitioning to some afternoon thunderstorms. Temperatures may still be able to push toward 80 degrees anyway, as it will not be raining all day.
Additional rain and thunderstorms are likely on Friday, with a greater chance for a washout of a day.
Winds aloft will be more supportive of strong storms on Friday, but there are a host of other uncertainties that could easily prevent any severe weather from developing. Still, it will be something I am watching throughout the week.
Rain will come to an end on Saturday, likely during the morning hours. Sunshine will then return for Sunday, pending any potential smoke plumes from Canada.
Temperatures Friday will stick to the mid 70s with similar highs Saturday and Sunday. Nighttime temperatures will remain mild, mainly sticking near 60 degrees.
This general pattern looks as though it will persist into the mid June at least, with warm temperatures and only occasional periods of rain mixed in with mostly dry weather.
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This graphic represents an average over the entire Finger Lakes region. Localized variations should be expected.
