Stalled Front
A weak frontal boundary is settling over the region today and will stick around into the weekend.
With plenty of heat and humidity also moving into the area, this setup will produce a daily chance for thunderstorms.
There will likely be minute day-to-day differences that determine how many thunderstorms are able to develop and which areas are most likely to see a storm. However, these subtleties may not be identifiable to a meaningful degree of accuracy ahead of time.
Temperatures will rise steadily this morning under partly cloudy to mostly sunny skies. Afternoon highs should make it to the mid 80s for most areas, though some higher elevations will stick to the low 80s. Dewpoints will be well into the 60s.
Stray showers and storms will pop up anytime during the afternoon, continuing into the early evening hours. At any given time, most areas will probably not be seeing any rain. Individual cells may come and go and be replaced by new ones over the course of the afternoon.
A couple of these storms may briefly attain severe status with strong winds the primary threat. As we have seen lately, though, even when conditions for other types of severe weather are not great overall, microscale conditions can still sometimes produce hail or even tornadoes.
With the loss of daytime heating after sunset, storms will quickly fade this evening and the overnight should be quiet. Any areas that see rain late may end up with fog as temperatures drop, and the typically foggy valley locations may see some toward dawn. Lows will be in the mid 60s.
Friday will be a repeat of today with the front still lingering overhead. Temperatures may be a couple degrees warmer, with fewer low 80s and more upper 80s. Most areas will still end up in the mid 80s, though.
Dewpoints will remain muggy, triggering another round of stray showers and storms in the afternoon. Like today, coverage is expected to be sporadic and the severe threat limited.
The cycle will continue in the evening, with storms quickly dissipating and patchy fog overnight. Lows will be in the mid 60s.
Storms Persist This Weekend
The atmospheric set up will start to shift a bit this weekend, but the end result will be more heat, humidity, and storms.
Temperatures on Saturday will push into the upper 80s with typically warmer locations likely hitting 90 degrees. Dewpoints will be up around 70 degrees, making it feel a bit hotter.
This will also provide plenty of fuel for storms, if the front or some other feature is present to trigger them.
I do expect something to trigger storms during the afternoon, but just how many and the area most favored is still uncertain. Severe weather should be limited to isolated areas.
Saturday night will be very warm with lows around 70 degrees. Once again, any storms should die off rather quickly and some fog may develop.
On Sunday, a frontal boundary that is better defined should slide into the area from the northwest. A line of showers and storms will likely develop in the afternoon, impacting most areas.
Wind speeds aloft, an important ingredient for severe weather, will be almost completely lacking. But, there still may be enough heat and humidity, with highs in the upper 80s to near 90 degrees and dewpoints near 70 again, to spawn at least some isolated stronger storms.
Lingering showers are possible early Monday, though this front, too, will be slow moving. This leads to some uncertainty and at least an outside chance for a final round of afternoon storms.
Temperatures Monday should drop to the low 80s but will jump right back into the mid 80s on Tuesday and upper 80s on Wednesday. Both of those days, at this point, are looking sunny and dry.
More Information:
» Finger Lakes Weather Radar
» Zip Code Forecasts
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This graphic represents an average over the entire Finger Lakes region. Localized variations should be expected.
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