Rain on the Way
High pressure remains over eastern Canada, while a large storm system is located over the lower Mississippi Valley.
That low will eventually redevelop tonight over the Appalachians and move north, tracking directly over the Finger Lakes Thursday afternoon and evening.
Until that happens, it will be another quiet and sunny day today.
Clouds will not make significant inroads into the region until the latter half of the afternoon or even this evening. Many of the initial clouds will be thin and should allow sunshine through them anyway.
Light east winds will blow at around 5 mph. Afternoon temperatures will be close to the seasonal averages, mainly topping out in the mid 50s.
Clouds will increase and thicken tonight with some rain showers moving in around and after midnight.
Before the rain arrives tonight, temperatures will dip into the upper 30s to around 40 degrees. During the overnight, temperatures will rise a couple degrees.
By sunrise Thursday, rain should be widespread throughout the region and locally heavy. Steady rain will continue for much of the morning before some breaks in the precipitation show up during the afternoon.
There will still be plenty of rain showers and a few downpours around Thursday afternoon, too, though.
Winds will remain easterly for much of Thursday. Most areas will see light to moderate winds, but the wind may flare up across the higher elevations east of Cayuga Lake with a few gusts over 30 mph. Some of the downpours may also contain some gusty winds and a couple rumbles of thunder.
Temperatures will be warmest in these same eastern areas with highs ranging from 50-55 degrees. Further west, highs will be in the 45-50 degree range.
Thursday evening should have fewer showers as the low moves overhead and some dry air wrapping into the circulation passes through. By this time, most areas should see an inch or more of rainfall. This dry slot may stick around even into early Friday morning.
Winds will remain light Thursday night as they turn to the southwest. Overnight lows will stay mainly in the 40s.
More Tricks Than Treats for Halloween
Moisture will wrap around the low and back into our area on Friday as the low travels up the St. Lawrence River Valley.
Rain showers will increase from west to east during the morning hours, possibly transitioning to steadier rain during the afternoon hours.
As the low continues to pull away, rain will become more focused over the northern two-thirds to half of the region. The further north, the longer your rain is likely to last, possibly continuing into the prime trick-or-treating hours Friday evening.
The higher resolution, short-term weather models that I lean heavily on for the fine details and specific timing questions are just starting to “see” Friday evening, so as they continue to update throughout today, I should start to get a better idea of those important details.
Besides the rain, Friday will turn windy as the low strengthens. Winds will become westerly or just north of west with speeds approaching 20 mph during the afternoon. Top gusts will be in the 35-45 mph range. It will remain quite blustery into the evening hours as well.
Temperatures will be stuck in the 40s for almost everywhere on Friday, with many mid and higher elevations only reaching the mid 40s. Late afternoon and evening temperatures will be in the 40-45 degree range.
The low will quickly depart Friday night, leaving just some lake effect rain showers Saturday and a few spits of rain early Sunday.
Saturday’s rain will mainly be southeast of Lake Ontario, and will be sporadic and especially focused on the morning hours.
It will remain breezy and cool, though winds will not be as strong as on Friday. Highs will be in that same 45-50 degree range.
Sunday will be a bit cooler in the morning, and a few wet snowflakes in the higher elevations south of Syracuse cannot be ruled out, especially near or before sunrise. Any lingering lake effect should not last long as dry air moves in.
Sunday afternoon should have sun and clouds with a high around 50 degrees. Winds will remain from the northwest at around 10 mph.
High pressure will build in for at least the first part of next week with sunny days Monday, Tuesday, and probably Wednesday. Temperatures will head back toward seasonal averages in the 50-55 degree range.
A weak weather system may bring some rain showers late in the week with uncertain weather beyond that.
More Information:
» Finger Lakes Weather Radar
» Zip Code Forecasts
» Get the FLX Weather Mobile App
This graphic represents an average over the entire Finger Lakes region. Localized variations should be expected.
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