Warm Weather System
A strong weather system will take shape over the Upper Midwest today, pass through the Upper Great Lakes tomorrow, and into eastern Canada on Thanksgiving.
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This system will bring different impacts to our region each day and even into the early weekend.
As this system begins to develop, high pressure resides just off the Mid-Atlantic coast. A substantial southerly flow between these systems has developed and will push warm air toward our region.
Thick clouds have already moved in and will remain in place throughout the day. Rain will develop as well and become widespread, first arriving in the region during the midday hours. By the early to mid afternoon, widespread rain will be falling throughout the area.
Steady rain will continue through sunset, gradually tapering to more scattered showers by the middle of the evening. Most areas should see between one-third and one-half an inch of rainfall.
South winds will be steady with speeds near or slightly over 10 mph. Some higher elevations may see a couple gusts over 25 mph.
Temperatures will range from the mid 50s in the northwestern Finger Lakes to the mid 40s in some higher elevations. Most areas will be a couple degrees on either side of 50 degrees.
Tonight, temperatures will drop to the mid 40s during the evening, only to rise back to the upper 40s overnight. By sunrise, a few areas may be near 50 degrees.
Scattered showers will continue overnight and into Wednesday morning. There should be a lull in the showers during the second half of the morning into the mid afternoon. Some sun will try to poke through the clouds during this time.
Depending on how much sun makes it out, temperatures will at least be in the upper 50s, but many areas could end up around 60 degrees. Winds will remain from the south and southwest at around 10 mph.
During the late afternoon, a cold front will pass through the region. A band of showers will develop along the front, possibly with a brief thundery downpour. Winds may briefly turn more westerly but will go back to the southwest by evening.
However, unlike earlier in the day, these southwest winds will bring cold air into the area. Temperatures will drop quickly, with most areas in the 30s no later than 9 PM.
Wintry Thanksgiving Holiday Travel
Lake effect snow will quickly develop Wednesday night, but with southwest winds, will mainly stay out of the region.
As winds start to turn more westerly during the predawn hours, flurries and squalls will enter the northwestern Finger Lakes. These will gradually pivot southward Thursday morning and into the afternoon.
The lake effect may start to intensify Thursday afternoon with strong winds carrying the snow deeper into the Finger Lakes region. The gradual swing south will continue, leading to varying and changing travel conditions across the region.
During the daytime hours, accumulations will generally be limited to an inch or two. Once the sun sets, snow will be more likely to accumulate, and travel conditions will likely become less ideal.
Overall, keeping in mind localized variations will be high, I expect travel to be minimally impacted during the daytime hours, with slight to moderate impacts depending on location after sunset.
Winds Thursday will be from the west-southwest and southwest up to 20 mph. Top gusts will be 40-45 mph. Afternoon highs will only make it to the mid and upper 30s for most.
By Friday morning, winds will turn to the northwest, changing the lake effect landscape across the region. The heaviest snows will now be coming off Lake Ontario, especially impacting Wayne, northern Cayuga, and Onondaga counties.
Elsewhere, the snow will be more intermittent or even non-existent, as usual with a northwesterly flow.
Once again, snow will be less likely to accumulate during the peak-heating hours of the day, when most areas should be in the mid 30s.
Some higher elevations south of Syracuse and in the western Southern Tier, however, may continue to accumulate any snow that is seen with highs failing to reach the freezing mark.
It will be another windy day with gusts near or over 40 mph once again.
Lake effect will become more localized Friday night, staying over the northeastern Finger Lakes. This will linger into Saturday morning before a wind shift ends the snow completely.
Saturday afternoon may have a little sun with highs in the mid 30s. Winds will be lighter as they turn westerly, then southerly.
A new weather system is expected on Sunday. This will most likely bring a little morning snow, followed by afternoon rain showers. The heaviest precipitation is expected, so far, to remain well to our northwest over Canada and the Upper Great Lakes.
There is still some uncertainty in the temperatures for next week, but cold is looking more likely with highs potentially struggling to even stay in the 30s. This will put us at risk for lake effect snow at a minimum, though it is too early to pinpoint which days may be snowy, and which ones will not.
More Information:
» Finger Lakes Weather Radar
» Zip Code Forecasts
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This graphic represents an average over the entire Finger Lakes region. Localized variations should be expected.
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