Lake Effect Snow Details
Cold air is building back into the Finger Lakes on west-northwest winds behind yesterday’s weather system.
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Snow bands off of both Lake Erie and Lake Ontario will impact parts of the region today as a result.
The Lake Erie band will be confined to the far southwestern portion of the region, mainly in Allegany and southern Steuben counties. Several inches of snow are likely in those areas over the course of the day.
The Lake Ontario band will be harder to pin down as it moves to and fro across the northern parts of the region throughout the day.
This band will develop during the early morning hours and remain on the southern edge of its expected extent through midday. The band should stretch roughly from Rochester to Geneva to Cortland, likely staying just north of Penn Yan and Ithaca.
During the early afternoon, the band will move and/or redevelop further north across northeastern Wayne, northern Cayuga, and northern Onondaga counties, including the Syracuse area.
By the late afternoon, it will sink south a bit again, getting close to Auburn and Skaneateles while moving south of Syracuse.
The southward drift may continue this evening, ending up near or all the way back to the locations it starts in this morning. The band will weaken during the evening hours with just some light snow showers overnight possibly making it as far south as Ithaca.
It is important to stress a couple of points about this forecast.
First, the band will be very narrow much of the time, so pinpointing the exact location of the band, or the exact time it may impact a given town, is a level of precision that is pushing the limits of what is possible.
Second, even within the time and spatial zones I described above, the band may be wobbling around on a localized level, leading to rapid changes in the weather conditions.
Lastly, lake effect often has a mind of its own and weather models are far from perfect in simulating it. There are almost always variations and surprises in the reality of what happens compared to the modeling.
My forecasts always aim to go beyond simply repeating what the models are showing, which is why I know the limits of forecasting in a set up like today, and that these three points are important to point out.
Instead of focusing on the specifics of who will see an inch of snow versus the neighboring town that may see three inches, let’s talk about the impacts of today’s weather pattern.
If you live in or have travel plans in the general areas described above and during the times the lake effect should be in the area, you should be prepared for rapidly changing conditions. Within the core of the band, snow will be heavy, visibility will be low, and roads will quickly become snowy and slick.
For areas where the band remains relatively stationary for a few hours, the moderate snow accumulations will be possible. As a whole, though, the transient nature of the band should reduce the potential for significant amounts.
Meanwhile, just outside of the band, the snow will be light or not falling at all. Further away, there may be some sun poking out.
Winds will be breezy with a few gusts over 30 mph at times. Even where it is not snowing, there will be some blowing and drifting of the snow.
Temperatures will mostly be in the mid 20s today, but with the wind, it will feel like the 10s or even single digits.
Scattered Snow This Weekend
Lake effect snow will be contained to the far northeastern Finger Lakes on Friday. A spray of lighter but steadier snow is expected across far northeastern Wayne, far northern Cayuga, and much of Onondaga counties.
Several inches will fall through the course of the day with snow lifting north out of the area by evening.
Elsewhere, a stray flurry cannot be ruled out, but no accumulating snow should be expected. Skies will be rather cloudy, but there will be some breaks in the clouds, too.
Winds will be from the west at around 10 mph, turning to the southwest late in the day.
Morning lows will start between 10-15 degrees for many areas, but warmer near Lake Ontario and where the lake effect snow is. Afternoon highs will mainly be between 25-30 degrees.
Despite a night of southwest winds, temperatures Saturday morning will still be down into the 10s.
Scattered snow showers will be possible during the day as warmer air starts to push in, and some snow develops off Lake Erie. Any accumulations on Saturday should be minimal with most areas not even seeing an inch.
Afternoon highs should break into the low 30s for many areas, though some higher elevations will stick to the upper 20s. The wind will be breezy, like today, with a few gusts exceeding 30 mph. This is most likely in the southwestern quadrant of the region.
Cold air will move back in on west winds Saturday night with a gradual turn to the northwest on Sunday. Morning lows will mainly be between 10-15 degrees and afternoon highs will be within a couple degrees of 20 degrees for many areas, but with some slightly-less-cold pockets.
With the wind, it will feel like the single digits and 10s, though the wind will not be too strong with top gusts of 20-25 mph.
As the winds turn to the northwest, a limited response of lake effect snow will be possible off Lake Ontario. Accumulations should be minimal again, though a few places may see an inch or two.
Weather Next Week and Beyond
Scattered lake effect may linger into Monday morning, with more widespread snow showers from a passing system in the afternoon and evening. Accumulations should be limited to a couple inches at most.
Monday will remain chilly with morning lows in the lower half of the 10s and afternoon highs in the low and mid 20s.
However, milder air is on the way.
Tuesday will see highs jump to near 30 degrees, while Wednesday will push 40 degrees. Most areas should be into the low and mid 40s on Thursday.
Tuesday and Wednesday will be dry with mostly cloudy skies. Scattered rain showers are likely on Thursday, possibly mixing with a little snow over higher elevations early and late in the day.
Passing weather systems will be possible around next weekend, but the track of these systems will determine our temperatures and precipitation types.
As a whole, though, the cold pattern we have been in all month seems to be breaking down with an increased chance for milder weather, at least some of the time, persisting as we draw nearer and nearer to Christmas.
There is a large spread on the models, though, so the weather that far out is far from conclusive. Be wary and skeptical of social media hype already making calls for a green Christmas or saying “winter is done”, which I have already seen floating around.
More Information:
» Finger Lakes Weather Radar
» Zip Code Forecasts
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This graphic represents an average over the entire Finger Lakes region. Localized variations should be expected.
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