Windy Weather System
A strong weather system will pass through the area tonight into Friday, with strong winds the biggest concern.
Some higher elevations are already on the breezy side this morning as south winds push warmer air into the region.
Wind speeds will gradually increase through the day, but the strongest winds will be over higher elevations.
Skies will be mostly sunny for a good chunk of the morning and possibly into the afternoon hours. Eventually, thin clouds will build in and gradually thicken. By the end of the day, any remaining sunshine will be filtered or mostly obscured.
Afternoon highs will push into the mid 40s for most areas. Even higher elevations should end up around 40 degrees. Evening temperatures will settle into the low 40s before rising again overnight. Most areas will end up warmer overnight than they will this afternoon, and a few places may even hit 50 degrees.
Wind speeds will continue to increase tonight, but with higher elevations still seeing the strongest winds. Top gusts over lower elevations should be 35-45 mph, but some higher elevations may see gusts over 50 mph.
Rain showers will be on and off this evening and into the early overnight. During the couple hours on either side of sunrise, more widespread rain is expected.
Embedded within this broader area of rain may be a line of particularly heavy rain along the cold front. A few rumbles of thunder cannot be ruled out, either.
However, the biggest concern with this line will be its potential to bring stronger winds aloft down to the surface. Localized gusts over 50 mph will be more likely with the line at any elevation. Some tree damage and power outages could occur.
The further east you are in the Finger Lakes, the greater this risk will be as the line develops and strengthens.
There is medium confidence in this line’s development. These types of scenarios usually pop up a couple times each winter, but the conditions that lead to them require a strong alignment of several atmospheric phenomena. If things do not line up just right, the full potential of the situation may not be realized.
Temperatures will drop behind this line, but should stay above freezing with the initial, sudden drop. The concern for a flash-freeze event is therefore low. However, there could be some snow on the backside of the front before the widespread precipitation departs.
Wind speeds will temporarily let up Friday morning in the wake of the front. However, they will pick back up from the west during the afternoon. The strong wind gusts will be more widespread and less dependent on elevation compared to tonight, with top gusts locally approaching 50 mph.
A spray of lake effect flurries and squalls will also develop as the day goes on Friday and temperatures drop below freezing. Most areas should see no more than a coating to perhaps an inch of accumulation, but roads may become slick and travel conditions will be quick to change.
Winds and snow will subside after midnight with winds turning back to the south early Saturday morning.
Weather This Weekend, Next Week
Saturday will not have much sunshine as a new batch of clouds ahead of another weather system begins to move in even before the lake effect clouds fully depart.
However, no precipitation is expected on Saturday.
The south winds will become established through the morning, then a bit breezy during the afternoon. Top gusts should stay under 30 mph, except perhaps in a few of the higher elevations south of Syracuse or in the Bristol Hills.
Temperatures on Saturday will rise into the mid and upper 30s. Overnight temperatures will then remain in the mid 30s thanks to clouds and continued but not quite as gusty south winds.
A few spits of snow will be possible overnight as a cold front moves through. This front will have very little moisture to work with, so most areas will not see any precipitation.
Winds will swing around to the west-northwest Sunday morning, increasing to near 20 mph with some gusts over 40 mph.
Some lake effect snow showers will be possible right along the shore of Lake Ontario and across the Southern Tier on Sunday with temperatures again falling through the day. By the afternoon, temperatures will be in the mid 20s.
The wind will remain blustery, but not quite as strong, through Sunday night. The wind direction will turn to the northwest, allowing lake effect off Lake Ontario to move south into the Finger Lakes, where it will then dissipate. Snow accumulations Sunday night should be minimal.
By Monday morning, temperatures will be in the 10s, but a mix of sun and clouds and a gradual return of light southerly winds will push afternoon highs into the upper 20s.
A small system is expected on Tuesday with some light rain or snow, or perhaps a mix of both. This looks to be a rather minor system with few impacts. Temperatures should be well into the 30s.
Wednesday looks quiet albeit cloudy with highs in the mid 30s. Thursday, Christmas Day, may have a few spits of rain or snow, but no major precipitation. Temperatures should at least be above freezing but could make a run toward 40 degrees.
Temperatures look a bit cooler for the week between Christmas and New Year’s.
More Information:
» Finger Lakes Weather Radar
» Zip Code Forecasts
» Get the FLX Weather Mobile App
This graphic represents an average over the entire Finger Lakes region. Localized variations should be expected.
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