Monday Morning
What: A few showers, increasing southwest winds, and temperatures starting to fall.
Where: Region-wide, occurring from west to east.
Impact: Minimal
Scattered rain showers along and behind the cold front will occasionally fall in the Finger Lakes region. Winds will turn to the southwest and increase with gusts over 30 mph, especially west of Keuka Lake. Temperatures will start to fall but will remain well above freezing.
Monday Afternoon
What: Rain showers turning to flurries. Remaining windy from the southwest with falling temperatures.
Where: Region-wide, strongest winds west of Keuka Lake.
Impact: Minimal-Low
Temperatures will start to fall below freezing from west to east during the afternoon, with everyone sub-freezing by the late afternoon. Areas of standing water or runoff from snowmelt may freeze into icy spots. However, the temperature fall will be slow enough that a flash freeze is unlikely.
Rain showers will turn to flurries, but precipitation will be spotty and light. A little sun may even poke through here and there.
Monday Evening & Overnight
What: Multiple intense bands of lake effect snow, strong winds
Where: Snow region-wide, but localized in nature. Strong winds everywhere.
Impact: Moderate-High-Very High
A second cold front will move through around sunset with a burst of snow. Immediately behind this, multiple bands of intense lake effect will set up from west-northwest to east-southeast. One band will be far to the north, impacting Wayne County into the Syracuse area. Off Lake Erie, the Southern Tier will see heavy snow. A third band between these two is less certain but possible, coming across the middle of the region.
Snow bands may wobble around a bit but will remain persistent through the overnight. Snow amounts will be extremely variable, with some areas seeing less than an inch, and others over a foot. The best chance for over a foot will be in the northern snow band and in the far western Southern Tier.
Winds will turn to the northwest and gust as high as 50 mph at times. Within the heavy snow bands, visibility will be near zero. Outside the snow bands, any previously fallen snow from today will blow and drift.
Travel conditions will become poor and hazardous, if not nearly impossible within the heavy snow bands. Temperatures will drop through the 20s with wind chills near or below zero.
Tuesday
What: Multiple intense bands of lake effect snow, strong winds
Where: Snow bands gradually concentrating over the northeastern FLX. Strong winds everywhere.
Impact: Moderate-High-Very High
Lake effect snow will continue Tuesday morning as it was Monday night. During the midday and afternoon, a gradual shift northward will occur, reducing the snow to occasional snow showers across the southwestern 2/3rds of the region. Several inches will fall locally, with most areas seeing at least an inch or so.
However, heavy snow will continue across Wayne, northern Cayuga, and Onondaga counties. Significant accumulations, near zero visibility, and some impassible roads will result in very high weather impacts.
Northwest winds will remain strong with gusts to 50 mph through the middle of the day. A slight and gradual weakening will occur during the afternoon, but blowing and drifting snow will continue region-wide.
Tuesday Night
What: Shifting lake effect snow bands
Where: Northeastern FLX early, southern FLX late.
Impact: Moderate
Overnight, winds will turn more westerly. The Lake Ontario band should eventually lift north of the region after midnight, but the Lake Erie band will return to the Southern Tier. Locally, several additional inches of snow will fall, but most areas should see an inch or less.
Winds will become westerly and continue to weaken. Most gusts overnight should remain under 25 mph. Still, localized areas of blowing and drifting will be possible.
Wednesday
What: Spray of Lake Erie snows
Where: Region-wide
Impact: Low-Moderate
West-southwest winds will bring snow off Lake Erie further north. A small weather system passing through will help broaden the area of snow. Most areas should see 1-3 inches of snowfall throughout the day.
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Late Week
What: Continued lake effect snow showers; Cold
Impact: Low
Areas of lake effect snow showers will continue Thursday, Friday, Saturday, and perhaps Sunday. Most of these will be light with minimal accumulation.
Temperatures will be cold, especially Thursday, when many may not reach 20 degrees.
Long Range Pattern
Beyond next weekend, temperatures look as though they will remain seasonal with highs in the 20s or 30s, but with the potential for interspersed colder days. Some models hint at an increase in activity along the east coast during the first half of January, but no specific individual storm threats have yet to consistently show.
Admin Notes
After yesterday’s post format received a lot of positive feedback, I’ve decided to experiment with it for a few days. Let me know how you like it or ways it could be improved.
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This graphic represents an average over the entire Finger Lakes region. Localized variations should be expected.
Tom Pritchard
Really like the new format!! Much easier to read!
Jennifer G.
I also like the new format. One suggestion: please color code the impact descriptions with your usual green for low, yellow for moderate and red for high. Then one can tell at a glance which days might be problematic. Thanks!
Meteorologist Drew Montreuil
Thank you. Yes, that is something I was thinking as well.
Sharon Warren
I really like this format. It’s very clear what to expect and when. Thank you, Drew and Happy New Year!
CRF
Really helpful format! Makes it easier to absorb all the good info.
One thing that would help some of us who are more specially challenged: could you include a key or a map that locates the regions you refer to as, e.g. southwestern southern tier, northeastern Finger Lakes, etc.
Meteorologist Drew Montreuil
Thanks! And yes… figuring out how to label areas is one of the hardest parts of my reporting. I don’t have a generalized map because it isn’t exactly set in stone… the weather is fluid, and so the labels need to be somewhat fluid as well.
In general though….
Southern Tier: Between the southern ends of the Finger Lakes (especially Cayuga and Seneca) and the PA border.
Northeastern FLX: Wayne, Cayuga, Onondaga counites… sometimes extending a bit further south and west.
Southern FLX: Make a line half way between Lake Ontario and PA… anything to the south of that. (And anything north for “Northern FLX”)
Maps take a lot of time to make, so I don’t usually get to include them… though I often want to. It is a trade off for getting the forecast out quicker in the morning. But I am analyzing and experimenting with things right now, so I may play with some other styles and methods.
As a fallback, you can always check out your zip-code based forecast for exactly what I am thinking for your town. Just go to flxweather.com/your-town…. so flxweather.com/ithaca or flxweather.com/penn-yan, for example.
Elizabeth P.
The new report format makes your excellent forecasts even easier to understand and act on. Great innovation!
Meteorologist Drew Montreuil
Thank you for the feedback!