So far, the low has been slower to develop and further west than most models showed. Last night, this delayed the change over to snow. This morning, this has pushed the dry slot further west.
As I said in my Weather Planner post last night:
“A slight shift in the dry slot westward could lead to lower amounts across the board…”
And
“As a reminder, snow maps like this one are meant to be a general guide… Focus less on the exact amounts and more on the overall pattern.”
And the overall pattern that I stressed last night—more snow north and west, less snow south and east—is holding true.
With everything shifted westward, yes, amounts will likely be lower than what was on my snow map across the board. But there are still several inches to come for some areas, so let’s start breaking things down:
Thursday Morning
What: Areas of snow; Blustery
Impacts: Varied
Snow will increase across the area as a band of moisture and atmospheric energy pivots through the region. Most areas will probably see an inch or two through the morning hours, with more to the northwest toward Rochester.
As the band tracks northeast, parts of the Southern Tier will see the snow taper off or end again by the late morning.
Temperatures, already in the 10s and 20s, will continue to fall. Winds will remain blustery as well, causing low wind chills and areas of blowing and drifting snow. Winds will be from the west-northwest and northwest with a few gusts over 30 mph.
Road conditions this morning will be varied, but most primary roads should be in fair shape.
Thursday Afternoon
What: Areas of snow; Blustery
Impacts: Varied
Snow will become more intermittent in the afternoon, especially east of Cayuga Lake, where it may merely be on and off snow showers. Additional accumulations here will generally be an inch or less.
Areas west of Keuka Lake and north of the Thruway will continue to have the best chance for steadier and, at times, heavier snow. Additional accumulations in these areas this afternoon will be on the order of 1-3 inches, perhaps a little more over Wayne and far northern Cayuga and Onondaga counties, where some lake enhancement will take place.
Temperatures will stabilize in the mid and upper 10s while gusty winds remain. Low wind chills and areas of blowing and drifting snow will continue to be a slight concern.
Thursday Night
What: A few snow showers; Blustery
Impacts: Minor
Most of the widespread snow should depart the area by the early evening hours. Some scattered lake effect bands will pass through the northern half of the region overnight with little impact. Some breaks in the clouds may even start to show up as dawn approaches.
Winds will not change much overnight, and temperatures will only lose a couple more degrees.
Friday
What: A few late snow showers
Impacts: None/Minor
A few breaks of sun may be possible early in the day, but clouds will quickly fill back in. A few late afternoon snow showers may develop as a warm front passes through, but these should have little to no impact or accumulation.
Winds will turn to the south early on and remain there throughout the day. Temperatures will rise to the mid and upper 20s this afternoon, then add another degree or two overnight.
Saturday
What: Occasional snow showers
Impacts: None/Minor
Southerly winds will continue on Saturday with speeds generally at or under 10 mph.
Skies will be cloudy, and some occasional snow showers will pass through the region. This snow looks disorganized, so accumulations and impacts are expected to be minimal.
A cold front will eventually pass through, so the potential for a frontal squall will need to be watched, but looks low at this time.
Temperatures will make it into the mid 30s during the afternoon. Cold air will move back in on southwest winds overnight, with lows in the low 20s.
Sunday
What: Sun and clouds
Impacts: None
The weather will take a break on Sunday with a mix of sun and clouds. No precipitation is expected.
Southwest winds will persist with speeds around 10 mph in the morning and lighter in the afternoon. High temperatures will be in the mid 20s.
Early Next Week
Another shot of cold air will move in early next week, starting with some snow showers on Monday associated with a cold front.
Tuesday’s snow will be limited to some lake effect off west-northwest winds. This should limit the impacts to near Lake Ontario and perhaps into the Syracuse area.
Some additional snow showers will be possible on Wednesday as not-quite-as-cold air moves back in.
Temperatures will top out in the low 20s on Monday. Tuesday may be the coldest day yet this winter, with highs struggling even into the low 10s. Both Monday and Tuesday nights will have widespread temperatures in the single digits. If skies clear anywhere, subzero readings will be possible.
More Information:
» Finger Lakes Weather Radar
» Zip Code Forecasts
» Get the FLX Weather Mobile App
This graphic represents an average over the entire Finger Lakes region. Localized variations should be expected.
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