Increasing heat and humidity will result in an increased chance for showers and thunderstorms during the mid and late week period. Each day should have highs in the 80s with most days above 85 degrees. Nighttime temperatures will remain in the 60s.
Monday
What: Sunny with a couple clouds
High pressure is over head today. Some morning clouds are drifting through the Southern Tier, but otherwise, skies will be rather sunny throughout the day with just some small fair weather clouds. Temperatures will be warm with highs between 80-85 degrees. The humidity will be low still, with dewpoints in the 50s and low 60s. Winds will be light during the day, but will become a bit steadier tonight from the south. Temperatures overnight will be in the low 60s.
Tuesday
What: Sun and clouds. Maybe a couple showers late west of Seneca Lake
South winds will lead to increasing temperatures and some increase in humidity. Most areas will see upper 80s for highs and a few urban areas could hit 90 degrees. Dewpoints will rise to 65-70 degrees, making it feel a bit muggy and uncomfortable. A few stray showers late in the afternoon cannot be ruled out, mainly west of Seneca Lake. Most areas will stay dry. Nighttime temperatures will be between 65-70 degrees.
Wednesday
What: Showers and thunderstorms
Multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms seem possible on Wednesday. The first batch of precipitation looks to be in the early morning and even predawn hours through the mid morning. Showers and a few thunderstorms will be numerous, but individual rain events will be short lived. Second, in the afternoon, some new showers and storms may pop up, especially east of Seneca Lake. These are expected to be less widespread but potentially heavier than the morning activity. Last and least certain is a chance for a line of thunderstorms sometime Wednesday night.
At this time, the risk for severe weather is low, but some isolated strong storms cannot be ruled out. The air will be soupy with dewpoints around 70 degrees. Afternoon highs will be held a touch lower, with mostly mid and locally upper 80s. Nighttime temperatures will be in the upper 60s.
Thursday
What: Showers and thunderstorms
As we get further out, the details on the daily rain chances become less certain. That being said, at least a few scattered showers and storms seem likely.
Thursday will be hot and humid. Dewpoints will climb into the low and even mid 70s, making the air thick and uncomfortable. Temperatures will be similar to Tuesday with upper 80s and locally 90 degrees. Heat index values will be a few degrees higher than the actual temperature.
The heat and humidity will provide ample fuel for thunderstorms, so anything that does fire up may go through cycles of becoming strong to severe. However, the winds in the atmosphere will generally be weak, which is a major limiting factor to a larger, more organized severe event. On the flip side, weak winds could mean slower moving storms capable of torrential downpours, so an isolated flash flooding risk will be something I will be watching for over the coming days.
Friday
What: Showers and thunderstorms
Everything written above for Thursday also rings true on Friday. It will be hot and humid, likely leading to some showers and storms… though how many and at what time they are most likely remains unclear. Weak winds will prevent a more widespread/intense severe weather event, but could lead to heavy rain and a flooding risk, particularly if the same areas get hit Wednesday, Thursday, and again on Friday.
Saturday
What: Sun and clouds
At this time, Saturday looks quieter, less humid, and a touch cooler. Temperatures will still be well into the 80s, but dewpoints will retreat to the upper 50s and low 60s. Sun and clouds are expected with no additional rain. It is worth noting that, given the overall pattern, this forecast could still change to look more like the surrounding days.
Sunday
What: Showers and maybe a few thunderstorms
A cold front may move through the area on Sunday with showers and a few thunderstorms. Temperatures will likely be a bit cooler as the front comes through.
Next Week
The weather is expected to stay unsettled next week with frequent chances for rain. However, instead of heat and humidity, it will be a return to cooler temperatures. Highs in the lower half of the 70s may become common place, and if a day turns out particularly rainy, some areas may not escape the 60s.
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