Building heat and humidity will set the stage for multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms over the coming days. With plenty of fuel to work with, some occasional stronger storms will be possible. Dewpoints will climb into the 70s, making for some very muggy days and nights. Cold fronts Friday and Sunday will both set temperatures back with an increased chance for stronger storms if all the pieces come together.
Tuesday
What: Sun and clouds. Maybe a couple showers late west of Seneca Lake
South winds will lead to increasing temperatures and some increase in humidity. Most areas will see upper 80s for highs and a few urban areas could hit 90 degrees. Dewpoints will rise to 65-70 degrees, making it feel a bit muggy and uncomfortable. A few stray showers and storms are likely late in the afternoon, mainly west of Seneca Lake and then dissipating early this evening as they move further east. Many areas will stay dry. Nighttime temperatures will be between 65-70 degrees.
Wednesday
What: Showers and thunderstorms
Multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms seem possible on Wednesday. The first batch of precipitation will be in the predawn hours and early morning hours through the mid morning. Showers and a few thunderstorms will be numerous, but individual rain events will be short lived.
Second, in the later afternoon, some new showers and storms may pop up, with the highest chance for rain coming east of Seneca Lake. One or two storms may get briefly strong with some gusty winds.
A final batch of showers and storms may pass through overnight or during the predawn hours of Thursday.
The air will be soupy with dewpoints around 70 degrees. Afternoon highs will be held a touch lower, with mostly mid and locally upper 80s. Nighttime temperatures will be in the upper 60s.
Thursday
What: Showers and thunderstorms
Like Wednesday, there may be multiple rounds of showers and storms on Thursday. These will be triggered by small impulses of atmospheric energy, often related to thunderstorms left over from the night before which originated over the Midwest. As such, the weather models cannot be completely trusted to resolve these fine details, especially more than a day or so in advance. So, know that there is a chance for showers or storms at almost any time, but that much of the day will be dry.
Thursday will be hot and humid. Dewpoints will climb into the low and even mid 70s, making the air thick and uncomfortable. Temperatures will be in the mid and upper 80s to near 90 degrees, depending on the timing and coverage of any storms.. Heat index values will be a few degrees higher than the actual temperature.
The heat and humidity will provide ample fuel for thunderstorms, so anything that does fire up may go through cycles of becoming strong to severe. However, the winds in the atmosphere will generally be weak, which is a major limiting factor to a larger, more organized severe event. On the flip side, weak winds could mean slower moving storms capable of torrential downpours, so an isolated flash flooding risk will be something I will be watching for over the coming days.
Friday
What: Showers and thunderstorms
A cold front is expected to pass through the region on Friday. Ahead of the front, it will be hot and humid. While the winds in the atmosphere are not overly impressive, there are other indications that severe weather could be in play, especially if the front is delayed long enough to allow temperatures into the 85-90 degree range. More details to come over the next few days.
Saturday
What: Sun and clouds
At this time, Saturday looks quieter, less humid, and a touch cooler. Temperatures will still be well into the 80s, but dewpoints will retreat to the upper 50s and low 60s. Sun and clouds are expected, and a stray shower cannot be totally ruled out.
Sunday
What: Showers and maybe a few thunderstorms
Another cold front may move through the area on Sunday with showers and thunderstorms. Wind profiles look much more favorable for potential severe weather, but this is only one of many ingredients that would need to come together to produce a severe weather event. Like Friday, stay tuned. Temperatures will likely be cooler as the front comes through.
Next Week
The weather is expected to stay unsettled next week with frequent chances for rain. However, instead of heat and humidity, it will be a return to cooler temperatures. Highs in the lower half of the 70s may become common place, and if a day turns out particularly rainy, some areas may not escape the 60s. That being said, the day most likely to turn out dry seems to be Monday.
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