Thunderstorm Outlook
A strong cold front will slowly move into the region late Sunday afternoon, producing widespread rain and thunderstorms.
Precipitation Timing
The main threat for rain and thunderstorms will be from 5 PM to 9 PM, moving slowly from northwest to southeast.
During this time, a band of heavy rain and embedded thunderstorms will cross the region. Thunderstorms will be on the leading edge of this band, followed by an hour or two of steady rainfall.
There will likely be some more scattered, short-lived activity ahead of the band during the early and mid-afternoon. Not all areas will see rain before the main line.
Even this morning, there may be one or two stray showers around. Anything that falls before noon should be brief and light with most areas staying dry.
Outside of the rain and thunderstorms, skies will be mixed. South (non-thunderstorm) winds will increase through the morning with occasional gusts over 30 mph this afternoon.
Thunderstorm Strength
The most likely scenario is a “broken” line of thunderstorms. This means that, while rain will be widespread, thunderstorms will be contained to individual cells or small segments within the line. A less likely scenario would be for a more organized line where thunderstorms extend solidly along the length of the line.
Any storm cells or segments that develop within the line will have the potential for strong to damaging wind gusts. I expect several reports of wind damage today, likely scattered about the region or perhaps in a couple of small corridors.
The chances for hail are minimal. Any hail that falls should remain small, though one or two instances of severe hail (1″ in diameter) cannot be ruled out.
The tornado threat is also minimal, but not zero.
Flash flooding could become a small, localized concern due to slower storm movement and heavy rainfall rates. Significant, widespread flooding is not expected.
The majority of the severe and flooding risk will come with the primary, late afternoon line. However, any cells that form in the mid to late afternoon just ahead of the main line could also have a localized severe threat.
Outlooks
The Storm Prediction Center has most of the area in a Level 2 – Slight risk for severe thunderstorms. In my eyes, this seems an appropriate designation for today. This is the type of thunderstorm event we see several times per year.
I expect a severe thunderstorm watch to be issued at some point, though it is not a 100% likelihood. I can see a pathway where the severe threat does not materialize enough to warrant a watch.
Several severe thunderstorm warnings will also likely be issued to address the individual strong cells or segments. One or two tornado warnings is not out of the question, but the chances are higher that none are needed.
As a reminder, a WATCH is issued for many hours over a large area to address the potential for severe weather. A WARNING is issued for 45-60 minutes (typically) for a small area to alert of ongoing severe weather in that area. Severe thunderstorm warnings can have winds equivalent to a weak tornado or can even produce a tornado, so it is important to take all warnings seriously and seek shelter.
All warnings will be automatically posted to this blog post and the flxweather.com homepage with the warning information and a map of the effected areas.
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