A frontal boundary will be over the area today, leading to cloudy skies. Temperatures will drop tomorrow as the front sags south, but rise again on Friday as low pressure lifts the front back to our north. Morning rain and a few afternoon thunderstorms are likely Friday along with gusty winds. Temperatures will drop rapidly Friday night with a few wet snowflakes mixing with rain showers early Saturday morning. High pressure then takes over with a stretch of sunny weather Sunday into most of next week.
Published Wednesday, October 14
Wednesday
What: A few showers
A slow moving, nearly stalled out frontal boundary will be draped over the region today, keeping skies mostly cloudy. An occasional shower or some drizzle may also be possible. Northwest winds will increase for the afternoon. Highs will range through the 60s with cooler temperatures to the north and milder temperatures to the south. Skies will remain cloudy tonight but temperatures will drop to the mid 40s as the front sags south.
Thursday
What: Sun and clouds
Thursday will be dry with clouds early on. Sunshine will gradually increase but will probably never come to dominate the sky. Winds will be from the north with speeds around or slightly over 5 mph in the morning, then east at less than 5 mph for the afternoon. A southeast wind will develop late in the afternoon and become blustery Thursday night as it turns to the south. Afternoon highs will mainly be in the upper 50s with mid 50s in the hills. Temperatures will initially drop to the upper 40s and low 50s, but may rise back to the mid 50s prior to sunrise Friday. Rain showers will also start to move in, especially after midnight.
Friday
What:Â Morning showers. Afternoon thunderstorms.
The expected track for Friday’s weather system has shifted northward, which has several important impacts on the forecast Friday and Friday night.
The day should start off rainy as the frontal boundary over the area today lifts back north through the area. Some thundery downpours may be possible during the predawn and early morning hours.
For the midday and early afternoon, we should get into the warm sector of the system. This will mean a period of sunshine and temperatures shooting up to at least near 70 degrees, if not warmer.
During the mid to late afternoon, a band of thunderstorms may develop and pass through the region, possibly enhancing the already blustery winds for a brief time.
Winds will turn to the northwest behind this band for the end of the day and into Friday night causing temperatures to rapidly drop. Scattered showers will be possible overnight, especially after midnight, off Lake Ontario.
With everything shifting further north, temperatures Friday night and early Saturday may not get quite as cold as they were looking, which will mainly just reduce the possibility of snow mixing in. A few flakes will still be possible with temperatures down into the 30s, but will probably be more contained to higher elevations.
Saturday
What: Morning rain and a few snow showers
Lake effect precipitation will persist Saturday morning, getting extra support on the backside of Friday’s weather system. With temperatures not quite as cold as they were looking, the amount of precipitation may be reduced. Still, scattered showers and a few wet snowflakes are likely Saturday morning.
Northwest winds will continue to be blustery with speeds of 15-20 mph and gusts as high as 35 mph. The wind will slowly weaken during the afternoon, but will remain breezy. Lake enhanced precipitation will be replaced by a mix of sun and clouds. Afternoon highs will struggle into the mid 40s.
Saturday night will have partly cloudy skies with winds turning to the southwest at speeds of 5-10 mph. Overnight lows will be down into the 30s again.
Sunday
What:Â Sunny
Winds will be much lighter on Sunday, coming from the southwest at 5-10 mph. Skies will be quite sunny with just a few thin clouds passing through. Afternoon highs will reach the mid and upper 50s. Nighttime temperatures will range from the mid 30s with areas of frost to the low 40s.
Monday
What: Sunny
High pressure will dominate the weather by Monday, leaving skies mostly sunny and winds light. Temperatures will work their way above 60 degrees for most areas. Light south winds will hold nighttime temperatures mainly to the 40s.
Tuesday
What: Sunny
Sunny skies will continue as high pressure remains in firm control of the region. Temperatures will be similar to Monday in the low 60s with light south winds.
Late Next Week
Very little change is expected for Wednesday and Thursday with more sunshine. Friday may have a few showers as a cold front passes through. Temperatures next weekend are less certain, but should either be close to the rest of the week or a little cooler. Rain chances are too uncertain to tell this far out.
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