Cold fronts on Friday will bring gusty winds, rain showers, and perhaps a few rumbles of thunder. Cold air will build in Friday night, leading to the first few wet snowflakes in higher elevations Saturday morning. High pressure will then build in for an extended stay, with sun-filled skies Saturday afternoon, Sunday, and throughout next week. Temperatures will rebound quickly from highs in the 40s Saturday, though widespread frost and localized freeze conditions are likely Saturday night.
Published Friday, October 16, 11:30 AM
Friday
What:Â On and off showers and storms.
After some breaks of sun this morning, a band of rain is moving through the Finger Lakes along a first cold front during the midday hours. A few rumbles of thunder and some enhanced gusty winds will be possible as this blows through.
The rest of the afternoon will have some spotty showers and cloudy skies. Winds will turn more to the west and remain blustery with similar speeds as the morning. Temperatures are near their peak and will drop a few degrees this afternoon.
A second front will pass through in the late afternoon or early evening with a slightly higher chance for some showers. Winds will turn to the northwest behind this front and the cool air will really start to pour in overnight. By tomorrow morning, temperatures will be widespread in the 30s. Frost is not much of a concern, though, thanks to the persistent winds preventing frost formation.
A few lake enhanced showers are expected through Friday night. Some higher elevations may see some snow flakes mixing in toward dawn.
Saturday
What: A few early showers, then sun
A few spits of rain, or rain and snow mixing, will be possible through the first half of Saturday morning. Not all areas will see precipitation during this time. A light coating of snow on grassy or elevated surfaces over some of the highest elevations is not totally out of the question.
High pressure will then build in with dry air and skies should gradually clear through the later morning hours. By the afternoon, skies should be mostly sunny. Winds will persist at around 15 mph with gusts to 30 mph until the late afternoon.
Despite the increase in sunshine, it will be the coldest afternoon our region has seen since mid-May or even April. Highs will only manage the low and mid 40s for most areas.
Winds will decrease during the evening and eventually turn to the southwest overnight. The timing of this wind shift may be important for frost and freeze considerations, though most of the area will probably be at risk for frost. If the shift occurs quick enough, lows may settle mostly in the mid 30s. If not, low and mid 30s will be more likely with cold pockets dropping into the 20s.
Sunday
What:Â Sunny
Winds will be much lighter on Sunday, coming from the southwest at around or slightly over 5 mph. Skies will be mostly sunny with few if any clouds. Temperatures will rebound a bit, with afternoon highs in the mid and upper 50s. Nighttime temperatures will range from the low 40s down to the mid 30s with areas of frost.
Monday
What: Sunny
High pressure will continue to dominate the weather on Monday, leaving skies mostly sunny and winds light. Temperatures will work their way into the low 60s for most areas. Light south winds will hold nighttime temperatures mainly to the low and mid 40s with a few pockets of upper 30s.
Tuesday
What: Sunny
Sunny skies will continue as high pressure remains in firm control of the region. Temperatures will be similar to Monday in the low 60s with light south winds, followed by nighttime temperatures mainly in the 40s.
Wednesday
What: Sunny
No change is expected on Wednesday either, with more sunshine and similar temperatures, topping out in the low 60s with lows in the 40s..
Thursday
What: Sunny
The forecast favors more sunshine on Thursday, though the confidence is a little lower than the other days, as some models have a weak front approaching the area late in the day or into Friday. Overall, though, it will probably end up just about the same as the previous few days.
Next Weekend
Dry weather may very well extend into next weekend, though the confidence decreases a little day by day simply due to the time-distance. Temperatures are unlikely to change much since theree are no major weather systems forcing a change expected.
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