Severe Thunderstorm Information
Finger Lakes Radar
Severe Thunderstorm Commentary
Severe Thunderstorm Outlook- Tuesday, May 30, 2017
7:20 PM Update
The severe thunderstorm watch has been cancelled for the area. The severe threat is over for the Finger Lakes. This is the final update for tonight.
3:40 PM Update
After a few hours of robust thunderstorms across the western Finger Lakes, thunderstorms are now weakening as they move further east. These areas further east have seen more clouds and showers from this morning into the afternoon, limiting the amount of atmospheric fuel necessary for storms.
I suspect that some severe threat will remain, but that the worst of this event may have already come. Frequent lightning does remain with many of the storms, along with heavy rain. Some isolated strong winds and hail will be possible into this evening.
I will continue to monitor the trends over the next few hours before the front responsible for the storms clears the Finger Lakes.
12:40 PM Update
Severe Thunderstorm WATCH now in place for all of the Finger Lakes along with all of Central New York and the majority of Western New York. This watch goes until 8pm.
12:15 PM Update
Thunderstorms are starting to redevelop over the Southern Tier, tracking northeast into the Finger Lakes. This is right on time. As these storms strengthen, hail will start to become a threat, followed by damaging winds.
Accordingly, the Storm Prediction Center has issued a discussion outlining the possibility for a severe thunderstorm watch across the Finger Lakes, along with central Pennsylvania. The watch has a 60% chance of being issued, and I expect it would come within an hour or two.
More updates to come through the afternoon.
10 AM Update
The rain and thunder from this morning has mostly moved out of the area, though a small band of newly developed activity exists in the northern Finger Lakes. For the most part though, the next couple of hours will be relatively quiet.
New weather model data coming in indicates the storms may be a bit quicker to develop, strengthen, and move east today. I am now expecting storms to start developing between Noon-1 PM with the potential to become severe by 2 PM.
There is also some indications of a more consolidated line of storms crossing the area instead of more scattered cells. Not all of the line will be severe, but localized parts of the line will likely have some large hail and damaging winds.
Most of the activity should be pushing east by 5 PM, though a few more scattered and generally weaker storms will be possible through about 7 PM.
7 AM Update
The Finger Lakes region is under the gun for some strong to severe thunderstorms this afternoon as a front crosses the region. While there are a number of factors that will limit the overall coverage and intensity of the storms, a few localized areas could see some intense storms later today.
Before these storms develop, however, an area of rain and thunder will push northeast into the Finger Lakes early this morning. Most of the activity should move east of the Finger Lakes by 9 or 10 am. Some locally heavy downpours and some lightning will be likely.
Our area will then see a break in the weather for a couple of hours before new thunderstorms begin to develop during the midday and early afternoon hours.
Initially, storms will be weak, small, and scattered. Gradually though, the storms will strengthen and consolidate into small clusters and line segments.
The best chance for severe storms will be between 4-7 pm this afternoon, though some small hail will be possible even before that time. Damaging winds and large hail will be the primary threats.
Winds strong enough to damage trees and large hail will be the primary threats. While a tornado cannot be totally ruled out, the tornado threat is quite low and a tornado is unlikely. Overall, this will be a fairly typical severe weather day for our region, somewhat similar to the Thursday, May 18 thunderstorms.
By this evening, thunderstorms should be pushing east into Central New York and dissipating as the evening cools.
On Wednesday, we will do it all over again as more thunderstorms develop during the afternoon hours.