Friday morning is starting off chilly across the Finger Lakes, with temperatures in the 40s and 50s.
High pressure has built in overhead and will keep the Finger Lakes dry through most of, if not all of Sunday. Southerly winds in the west side of the high, along with ample amounts of sunshine, will help boost temperatures back above normal. Once temperatures rise, they won’t be fast to fall, with a warm start to September expected.
For Friday, expect a lot of sun across the Finger Lakes and temperatures in the low and mid 80s. Saturday should reach near or just above 80º, again with plenty of sun. On Sunday, there is a chance for a late day shower or thunderstorm, but the models seem to be trending away from this idea with any rain holding off until Sunday night or Monday at the earliest. Temperatures on Sunday should be well into the 80s.
Meanwhile, Tropical Storm Erika has been struggling to organize and survive. Environmental conditions were expected to become hostile to development, and that has certainly been the case. As I mentioned on Tuesday, there were a number of possibilities for Erika’s track that could have a large impact on the storm’s strength.
Of those possibilities, a southern track over Hispaniola would be the most detrimental to storm growth, due to the combination of a hostile atmosphere and the mountains in that area. This appears to the be path Erika is taking, with the ill-defined center now southwest of Puerto Rico. I would not be surprised if Erika gets torn apart in the next 24 hours and dissipates.
If Erika does survive though, it seems inevitable that she will make her way towards Florida or the Gulf of Mexico. A track over Florida would give Erika very little time to strengthen and she would likely remain a weak to moderate tropical storm. A path further west, over the Gulf of Mexico, would have to be watched for intensification though.
Erika remains very uncertain and should continue to be monitored over the weekend. Wherever Erika does end up, the high pressure currently over our area should help keep her locked to the south and there are no indications at this time that the remnants of Erika would come north.