Saturday Severe Thunderstorm Update
The severe thunderstorm threat for the Finger Lakes on Saturday, July 1 will be less than originally expected due to widespread rain and cloud cover during the morning hours.
The rain and thunderstorms this morning are associated with a piece of atmospheric energy out ahead of the primary cold front.
As one cluster of rain and storms moves through, a second area of precipitation is lifting northeast towards the Finger Lakes from northwestern Pennsylvania.
All of this rain should gradually weaken during the mid and late morning hours.
The morning rain will have two impacts on the weather for this afternoon.
First, the atmosphere will not have a whole lot of time to recover from the morning clouds and rain. This will put a limit on thunderstorm development during the midday and early afternoon hours. By the mid to late afternoon, there should be ample recovery for thunderstorm development.
However, the second, and more significant limiting factor will be the lack of a defined trigger mechanism.
These packets of energy that are moving through this morning will go on to fire thunderstorms east of the Finger Lakes, but behind them, there is a void of disturbances before the cold front.
Now, the overall weather pattern is supportive of active weather, so I do still expect some scattered showers and storms, even without a substantial trigger.
The overall severe threat and storm coverage, however, will be limited.
Not counting the thunderstorms this morning, which are generally just heavy rain producers, thunderstorms will redevelop over the eastern half of the Finger Lakes, where it is not as rainy this morning, during the early afternoon hours.
Thunderstorms will be scattered cells, a few of which could be capable of strong winds and very heavy rainfall. The hail and tornado threats are minimal, but are still present.
By the mid and late afternoon, a few more isolated storms may fire up a bit further west and will also track east across the remainder of the Finger Lakes.
Thunderstorms will also develop this afternoon across Canada along the cold front, but these should generally diminish by the time they cross into western New York and the Finger Lakes tonight.
So, the chances for severe weather increase with distance further east. The primary threat in the Finger Lakes will be during the early and mid afternoon.
A more significant severe weather event is unlikely.
The cold front will weaken as it moves east through the Finger Lakes tonight. The humidity will drop some for Sunday, but temperatures will remain mild in the upper 70s.
Another disturbance may swing through during the afternoon hours. This could trigger another round of scattered thunderstorms.
Atomspheric conditions for severe weather will be very limited, so I am not anticipating any strong storms at this point.
The best chance for storms, at this point in time, appears to be between 3-6 pm.
Conditions should dry out for the evening hours Sunday.
Pauline C. Dear
Thanks for keeping track off the summer storms. They are so crazy and mess up a lot of fun activities. Knowing where they are makes a big difference.
Thanks Drew. It’s good to have you forecasts. I really appreciate them. BTW, you have to love all this activity.
Meteorologist Drew Montreuil
You are most welcome! The active weather is certainly keeping me busy and is good for my web stats…but I feel terrible for the farmers who can’t get the hay in!