Friday Rain in the Finger Lakes
The front that moved through the Finger Lakes Wednesday evening has returned to the area with a fresh batch of rain showers.
On and off rain showers will continue through the morning across the Finger Lakes before tapering off during the afternoon.
Most of the rain will be light and rain amounts will mostly be between one and three tenths of an inch. A few localized places could see a little bit more.
Clouds will likely remain in place much of the day, though some glimpses of the sun will be possible this afternoon.
Temperatures will be held in check with the clouds and showers, with highs topping out mostly in the mid 60s. This is actually rather close to average for this time of the year.
Active Weather for the Weekend
The weather will remain active for the weekend. This does not mean that it will be a bad weekend for getting outside.
On the contrary, much of the weekend will probably turn out rather nice.
A storm system lifting northeast into the Upper Great Lakes will push a surge of warm air into the Finger Lakes on Saturday.
Ahead of this warm-up, showers will be possible Saturday morning along the leading edge of the warm air.
Most of the showers should clear out by the afternoon with sunshine likely. Temperatures will turn very warm, with highs around 80 degrees.
Strong winds will kick up Saturday night and into early Sunday morning. Top gusts over 40 mph are possible for much of the Finger Lakes, especially over higher elevations.
The strong winds will keep temperatures very warm Saturday night, with Sunday morning lows in the upper 60s.
Winds will shift to the west and weaken later Sunday morning as a cold front moves through. Some additional showers are likely, but again will mostly be early on.
The sun should come out later Sunday with temperatures in the mid 70s.
Early Week Rain Potential
By Sunday afternoon, Nate should be making landfall along the Gulf Coast as either a strong tropical storm or, more likely, a weak hurricane.
Models continue to show moisture from Nate streaming north with a swath of heavy rain from the Gulf States into New England.
Pinpointing the areas of heaviest rain will be especially tricky. These types of rain events are unique and not terribly common.
There is a definite risk-reward paradigm for the Finger Lakes with this event. Much of the region is now classified as having abnormally dry, pre-drought conditions.
However, rain amounts in excess of 5 inches over a relatively short time period, which will be a possibility somewhere, is never a great idea.
At this early stage, it appears the best chance for that magnitude of rain potential will be southeast of the Finger Lakes, with more of a beneficial, not excessive rain in our area.
However, it remains too early to be sure, and the Finger Lakes could just as easily see some flooding problems as it could completely miss out and stay mostly dry.