Chilly Thursday transitions to brief warm-up

finger lakes weather forecast clouds cool temperatures
Clouds will linger on Thursday as cool air crosses the warm waters of the Great Lakes, but some sun should find its way out from time to time. [Photo by Joan Lockwood]

Cool Temperatures Thursday

Thursday will be a cool day across the Finger Lakes with temperatures running a bit below normal this afternoon.

A northerly flow on the backside of low pressure off the coast of New England will keep temperatures chilly.

Temperatures this morning are generally in the 40s with a few 30s across the Southern Tier and western Finger Lakes.

The air is cold enough for some lake effect rain showers this morning, mostly from Keuka Lake eastward. These scattered showers will continue into the mid-morning hours before generally falling apart.

Skies will be a mix of clouds and sun today as high pressure starts to nose in, but the cool north wind keeps lake effect clouds in place.

A stray shower or two will be possible this afternoon, with a small uptick in the shower activity this evening as lake effect kicks in again.

Temperatures this afternoon will only top out in the low 50s and should quickly drop back into the 40s this evening.

Skies should start to clear after midnight, sending temperatures into the 30s for most areas tonight. Any remaining cold-sensitive vegetation should be protected from frost tonight.

Warming Trend Friday into Saturday

High pressure will pass through the region Friday, helping temperatures to rebound from the chilly start.

Winds will turn to the south during Friday morning. Along with mostly sunny skies, temperatures should have little difficulty rising quickly.

Friday afternoon will see temperatures top out around 60 degrees. This is actually a couple of degrees warmer than average for late October.

Skies will remain sunny throughout the day and should be mostly clear Friday night.

The south wind will persist through the night, keeping overnight temperatures in the upper 40s.

The wind will become gusty Saturday as the next system approaches. With gusts to 35 mph during the day, temperatures will get an extra boost. Look for highs Saturday in the upper 60s.

Latest Thoughts on Sunday-Monday Rain Potential

The latest trends on the rain during the second half of the weekend is for more of a split between two events instead of a single, more prolonged event.

The first event will move in Saturday night and continue into Sunday morning with widespread rain and some gusty winds.

Rainfall amounts through Sunday afternoon should be in the range of an inch or so.

The rain may then taper to showers for a time Sunday afternoon before the second piece rolls in Sunday evening.

This second piece is currently an area of low pressure near Central America that has a 40% chance of developing into a weak tropical storm.

By Sunday, this system should be non-tropical as it moves up the east coast of the United States and strengthens.

The exact track it takes will determine what we see here in the Finger Lakes. Currently, we are projected to be on the edge of the system, resulting in a wide range of possibilities over our region.

Western areas are much less likely to see heavy rain while the eastern Finger Lakes could just as easily see a couple of additional inches as it could see just a few more showers.

The timeframe for this second, uncertain storm system would be Sunday evening into early Monday.

Please continue to check back for more details over the coming days.

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Follow Meteorologist Drew Montreuil:
Meteorologist Drew Montreuil has been forecasting the weather in the Finger Lakes region since 2006 and has degrees in meteorology from SUNY Oswego (B.S. with Honors) and Cornell (M.S.). Drew and his wife have four young boys. When not working or playing with the boys, he is probably out for a run through the countryside.