Heavy Rain Moving Into the Finger Lakes
A large area of heavy rain is moving into the Finger Lakes Monday morning and will persist for much of the day before turning to snow tonight.
This rain is being fed by an area of low pressure over Virginia while a secondary low is situated over Michigan.
Large amounts of Atlantic moisture are being pulled inland on southeast winds, funneling directly into the Finger Lakes.
The rain is already moving into the Finger Lakes early Monday morning and will overspread the region before mid-morning.
The two lows will start to move in different directions, breaking the connection to the Atlantic moisture, causing the rain to somewhat drop in intensity by midday.
Still, periods of rain, some heavy, will persist through the afternoon. A couple rumbles of thunder will also be possible today, which could lead to some enhanced downpours.
By this evening, many areas will see between 1-1.5 inches of rain with locally up to two inches.
Since the precipitation Saturday night set up mostly north of the region, the flooding threat will be less. Still, some localized ponding of water and some small stream flooding may be possible.
Strong winds this morning will briefly die down, only to pick back up again this afternoon with southwest winds gusting to 35 mph.
Back to Snow
Cold air will rotate around the Michigan low this afternoon with temperatures falling back into the 30s late this afternoon and evening.
Rain will turn over to snow and continue through the overnight and into Tuesday. Total accumulations will range from a coating to perhaps a couple of inches over higher elevations.
Tuesday looks to be a cold, raw day with widespread snow showers, west winds gusting to 35 mph, and high temperatures only reaching the upper 30s.
After a couple showers or flurries early Wednesday, a new system will pass to our south late Wednesday night into Thursday.
Precipitation may be a mix of rain and snow before ending as all snow Thursday afternoon. Another coating to one or two inches will be possible.
Signs of a Little Spring?
After another cool, but partly cloudy day on Friday, there are some signs of a pattern change across the eastern half of the nation.
A large area of high pressure is expected to set up over the Mid-Atlantic this weekend before drifting out over the North Atlantic early next week.
Instead of dipping down over our region, the jet stream is also expected to jog north into Canada. A secondary, southern piece of the jet stream will remain over the Southeastern United States.
This will result in some warmer, more typical late April weather, with temperatures in the 50s becoming commonplace. While certainly nicer than it has been, by the middle of next week, average highs reach 60 degrees, so even 50s will be considered a bit cooler than normal.
With high pressure in control, a stretch of sunny weather should last at least a couple of days before a system in the southern jet stream tries to turn north.
A quick turn around from winter to summer, which has been a popular theory on social media recently (and has certainly happened in the past) does not seem likely though with more below normal temperatures expected at least for the early part of May, if not most of the month.
Hopefully, with temperatures returning to near normal for a week or two, we can at least say goodbye to any significant winter weather after this week.
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