Rain Early, Storms Late
Wednesday will start and end with some rain while the afternoon turns out mostly dry.
A batch of showers is moving through the Finger Lakes early Wednesday morning. This rain is associated with a disturbance that also serves as a leading edge to some humid air.
Showers will continue this morning, though the rain will become much more scattered after 9 am. A few showers may even linger into the early afternoon hours.
Most of the afternoon will be dry, though. A little sun may try to break out as well, but there will still be plenty of cloud cover to contend with.
Still, high temperatures should manage to reach about 80 degrees with dew points in the mid and upper 60s.
While warm and muggy at the surface, conditions throughout the atmosphere will only be marginal for thunderstorm development.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms will make their way back into Western New York during the late afternoon, spreading across the Finger Lakes roughly around or just after sunset.
The Storm Prediction Center has our area in their Level 2 (Slight) risk area for severe thunderstorms. I think this is overdone and am expecting very little if any severe weather. Any severe weather that does occur should be very brief and very localized. Gusty winds and some small hail are the main concerns.
The thunderstorm threat should end by 10 or 11 pm as a cold front moves through.
Skies will start to clear overnight behind the front. Gusty winds will already be in place before the front, but the wind will swing around to the west-northwest and increase.
The strongest winds are expected Thursday morning when gusts of 40 mph are possible over most of the Finger Lakes. The wind will slowly abate during the afternoon hour, but gusts over 30 mph will continue to be possible into the evening.
Outside of the wind, Thursday will be a fine day. The sun should shine between some clouds with temperatures reaching into the low and mid 70s.
Temperatures Thursday night should dip back into the low 50s.
Friday should be similar to Thursday, just much less windy. Expect a lot of sunshine and temperatures in the low and mid 70s.
Saturday and Sunday should remain dry and sunny across the Finger Lakes. There is a very small chance that the remnants of a thunderstorm complex from the northern Great Lakes could drift through at some point, but I find that unlikely at this point in time.
Saturday should see temperatures push back towards the 80 degrees. Sunday could turn out rather hot. Temperatures should at least reach the mid 80s, but some 90 degree readings will be possible.
Monday looks even hotter, with upper 80s likely and low to mid 90s a possibility.
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