Will it Rain Saturday?
An afternoon weather system will bring a chance for showers and thunderstorms to the region Saturday afternoon.
This disturbance is to our west over Michigan this morning. A second disturbance is to our north over Canada with a batch of showers over northern and eastern New York.
The Michigan system will track eastward today. Sunshine will warm temperatures well into the 80s before the system arrives. There will be a modest amount of instability (fuel) for thunderstorm development, especially located across the southern half of the region.
Showers will move into the northern Finger Lakes during the middle of the afternoon. Along the southern edge of this area of light rain, some thunderstorms will start to fire across the mid and southern lakes region.
These storms will develop further and organize into clusters or even a line of storms as they head into the Southern Tier.
The best chance for thunder is roughly south of a Dansville-Penn Yan-Morava-Tully line in the darker green shading on the map above.
One or two storms could have briefly strong winds over the Southern Tier, but organized, significant severe weather does not seem overly likely today.
The timing of the thunderstorms is a bit uncertain, but the window of opportunity should begin to open as early as 3 pm. After about 8 pm, thunderstorms should taper off and/or move out of the region. Showers across the northern areas will arrive an hour or two earlier.
After a few morning clouds, Sunday should end up at least partly cloudy.
One or two widely isolated showers will be possible, but these will be very few and far between. Most, if not all of the Finger Lakes will remain dry.
Temperatures Sunday will reach the mid 80s.
Monday will become hot and humid as southwest winds ahead of a cold front set up. High temperatures will push or exceed 90 degrees with heat index values in the mid and even upper 90s.
Again, a couple of late day showers or storms may pop up. These will be more numerous than on Sunday, but most of the region will still not see rain.
A cold front will then move through the region on Tuesday. Rain and thunderstorms are likely, even if the front moves through during the morning hours.
While some areas could see significant rain from thunderstorms, it will be feast-or-famine with others seeing only light rain.