New Storm System Starts to Work In
Monday will be a day of transition for the Finger Lakes as high pressure departs and the influences of a new storm system begin to take over our weather.
Most of today should be a pleasant enough day. Skies will start off sunny with a gradual increase in thin overcast. Some sunshine will still filter through these clouds.
Winds will turn from the east this morning to the southeast this afternoon and increase slightly. Top gusts before sunset should be around 25 mph.
High temperatures will be a bit warmer than over the weekend. Expect afternoon temperatures to be a degree or two on either side of 70 degrees.
During the late evening hours, an area of widespread rain will approach from the south. By midnight, most of the area should be seeing rain.
Rain will continue through the remainder of the night and into the early morning hours, tapering off from southwest to northeast between 7-10 am.
With the rain will come an increase in wind with gusts of 30-40 mph from the south by Tuesday morning.
Scattered showers will persist through Tuesday with more strong winds and mostly cloudy skies. Temperatures will again be near 70 degrees.
Severe Threat Wednesday Unlikely to Match Last Friday
The rain Monday night into Tuesday will be caused by a warm front as low pressure lifts northeast through the Midwest and Upper Great Lakes.
By Wednesday, the low will be to our north over Canada and another strong cold front will approach the region from the west. Together with the storms last Friday, I have been watching this threat on the models for about the last week or so. Over the weekend, the Storm Prediction Center began to outline our area for the potential of more severe weather.
However, at this time, I am not as concerned about this severe weather potential as I was about late last week’s.
For one, the atmosphere does not look quite as primed for severe weather. There will likely be more clouds and showers early Wednesday to limit instability.
Also, the threat for tornadoes will be minimal with winds at all levels of the atmosphere coming from the same direction. There were three tornadoes last Friday- one in Ohio and two in Canada, including a high-end EF3 with winds over 160 mph near Ottawa, less than 200 miles north of the Finger Lakes.
I do not expect similar results from this storm system at this time.
Lastly, the threat will likely be maximized for areas further east, particularly in the Mohawk Valley into the Catskills, Hudson Valley, and Capital Region.
The day looks to unfold like this:
Morning showers and a couple rumbles of thunder will clear out by late morning, only to be replaced by a slowly developing line of rain and embedded thunderstorms during the early afternoon. These will likely get through the Finger Lakes before becoming too strong. A few sporadic severe thunderstorm warnings will then be required east of Central New York, but the line never fully organizes.
Of course, this is still a bit early and even slight adjustments could lead to a different scenario. The models have been fairly consistent, though, and this set up just does not seem to be on par with last Friday’s.
Nonetheless, you can count on Finger Lakes Weather to keep you updated with honest, accurate, no-hype forecasts.
The end of the work week and the weekend currently look quiet with generally near-normal temperatures in the 60s to perhaps low 70s.
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