November starts soggy

finger lakes weather forecast thursday november 1 2018 rain amounts map
Rain amounts over an inch are most likely over the western Finger Lakes through Friday morning.

Another Soaking  Rain

Thursday will be a wet day across the Finger Lakes with widespread rain falling much of the time.

Last night, a cold front moved through the Finger Lakes. This front is now situated just to the southeast of the region where it will stall out for today.

finger lakes weather surface weather map thursday november 1 2018 morning
Widespread rain is lifting northeast through the Ohio Valley and Lower Great Lakes, funneling right into the Finger Lakes. [Click map to enlarge.]
Waves of low pressure riding along the front are contributing to a large area of widespread rain that extends southwest into the Ohio and Mid-Mississippi Valleys.

Rain is already falling over most of the area this morning and will continue to do so for the majority of the day.

If there are any breaks in the rain, they will be most likely over the southeastern Finger Lakes, which is closer to the front. Further north and west, there is little chance for any substantial breaks in the rain.

Much of the rain will be steady but light today with a few heavier areas from time to time. The rain should increase in intensity this evening, especially over western areas.

Steady, heavy rain will continue through midnight, then transition to on and off showers that will become less numerous by sunrise.

Scattered showers will continue to dot the region on Friday, but there should also be plenty of dry time throughout the day.

Rain totals will be highest over the western Finger Lakes where one to two-inch amounts should be widespread. I opted to go with lower amounts over the eastern areas and even considered a sub-half-inch area in the southeastern Finger Lakes.

This is well below some model guidance, but I have the edges of similar precipitation events under perform before and feel it will do so again this time.

Temperatures and the Weekend Forecast

A few more showers will be possible on Saturday as low pressure lifts through New England, but most of that precipitation will stay well to the east. Sunday then turns sunny.

Temperatures over the next several days will bounce around.

Thursday is starting with temperatures in the mid 40s and that is where they will stick throughout the day.

Evening temperatures will dip into the low 40s, but after midnight, warm air will make a push north.

How far north the warmth gets is still in question and models are trending colder. The northern Finger Lakes may now get stuck in the 40s while areas 20 mils south shoot into the upper 50s or low 60s. Tomorrow morning’s surface weather map will be very interesting across our area.

The warm air will remain over the southern Finger Lakes through about noon, then retreat to the east. Temperatures will slip into the low 40s for all the region by dinnertime.

Saturday will start with temperatures near 40 degrees and only see a high in the mid 40s. it will also be quite breezy with gusts in excess of 30 mph form the northwest.

With some sunshine and a south wind, Sunday will be closer to 50 degrees.

Monday, Tuesday, and Wednesday should be into the 50s.

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Meteorologist Drew Montreuil
Follow Meteorologist Drew Montreuil:
Meteorologist Drew Montreuil has been forecasting the weather in the Finger Lakes region since 2006 and has degrees in meteorology from SUNY Oswego (B.S. with Honors) and Cornell (M.S.). Drew and his wife have three young boys and also run a goat milk soap business, Ye Olde Goat Cart. When not working or playing with the boys, he is probably out for a run through the countryside.