Minimal Chances for Ice
A weather system will spread precipitation into the Finger Lakes for Wednesday afternoon.
This precipitation is not expected to arrive until the midday or early afternoon hours.
Predawn temperatures across the region are in the upper 20s, so there only needs to be a few degrees of warming to keep the precipitation rain.
This should not be too hard to achieve, with most of the area rising above freezing during the mid to late morning hours.
While the National Weather Service has issued Winter Weather Advisories for nearly all the region, I expect icy conditions to be hard to come by.
The best chances for freezing rain will remain near Lake Ontario, especially west of Rochester. Some higher elevations across the Southern Tier and Central New York could also see a bit of freezing rain early on in the precipitation.
By about 2 pm, the threat for ice should be over, even for areas near Lake Ontario. Temperatures will top out in the mid and upper 30s.
Steady rain will fall through the afternoon before tapering off during the early evening.
Areas of drizzle will be possible through the night and into Thursday morning. Northern areas could slip to around 32 degrees, so a few more icy spots could develop. Areas further south should remain in the mid 30s.
More Rain Thursday Night
Much of the day Thursday will be quiet. A little sun may try to come out between the clouds during the early and mid afternoon.
Temperatures will warm into the upper 40s and low 50s and will remain very mild into the evening and overnight.
A couple more areas of rain will move into the region, first early in the evening, and then overnight.
Some of this rain could fall heavily at times and a rumble of thunder is not out of the question.
Any thundery downpours will raise localized flooding concerns with locally an inch or more of rain falling. Most areas should see less than a half-inch, though.
The Southern Tier seems to be the most at risk for some heavier rains. Those who commonly experience water problems such as wet basements should be prepared for the potential Thursday night.
Cold air will move back into the region on Friday on strong west winds.
Scattered snow showers will be possible throughout the day but with little to no accumulation.
Wind gusts for areas from Canandaigua westward could approach 50 mph on Friday. Wind gusts of 35-45 mph will be common further east, with higher elevations most likely to see wind gusts approach 45 mph.
Temperatures will fall through the 30s and end up in the 20s by the afternoon.
Strong winds will spread east overnight and continue into Saturday before finally dissipating after sunset.
Saturday will be cold with highs in the mid 20s and wind chills in the teens. A few morning flurries will be possible southeast of Lake Ontario. The afternoon should then turn sunny.
Sunday will be partly cloudy with highs near or just above 30 degrees. Winds will be much lighter.
Temperatures should remain generally near normal through next week with upper 20s and low 30s most days. There may be some chances for snow, but as of now, nothing is certain.
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