Isolated Flooding Possible
A stalled out frontal boundary is poised just northwest of the Finger Lakes today.
This front extends south all the way to the Gulf of Mexico. Multiple weak low pressure systems are riding north along the front. One of these lows will become dominant today over the southern Appalachian Mountains.
As this low slowly moves north, the front will also jog east. Both mechanisms will increase our chances for rain as the day goes on.
Showers will be possible area wide but will be especially likely west of Seneca Lake through the mid-afternoon hours. During the late afternoon and into the evening, the rain should become more widespread throughout the region.
Embedded within the larger area of rain this evening and will be some thundery downpours. Multiple rounds of thunderstorms will be possible.
Flooding will become a concern in areas where multiple thunderstorms move through. It is impossible to say exactly where that threat is the greatest across our area.
Generally, rain amounts will be between 0.5 and 1.5 inches. These amounts should not produce flooding. Where the downpours repeatedly occur, amounts could reach or exceed 2 inches. That would result in some localized flooding issues.
The degree of those issues would depend on where it happens. Flood prone areas such as steep terrain or urban areas would have a greater impact than a well drained area. The majority of the region will probably have few impacts.
Sharp Temperatures Differences
Temperatures will be warm ahead of the rain today with highs around 70 degrees. This evening, a sharp boundary will sink southeast into the Finger Lakes. While evening temperatures ahead of this boundary remain in the 60s, temperatures will drop into the mid 40s over a span of 10-15 miles.
How far east this boundary makes it is uncertain, but it could progress through much of the Finger Lakes by Saturday morning. During the morning and afternoon Saturday, the warm air will push back. Again, how far west it makes it is uncertain and will partially depend on how far east it gets initially.
So, the bottom line for temperatures is this: warm through this afternoon, then a sudden change to cold overnight, then possibly a more gradual change back to warm Saturday, though that is less likely the further northwest you go.
Winds on the warm side of this boundary will remain blustery with 30+ mph wind gusts. On the cool side, winds will be light.
Scattered showers will also be possible on Saturday, but they will be mostly brief and light in nature. Only one or two isolated showers are expected for Easter Sunday. Temperatures will be more uniform on Sunday as well, with mid 50s to the southwest and low 60s to the northeast. Winds Sunday will be light.
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