Rain, Wind, and Thunder
Low pressure is located over Lake Erie this morning and will continue to track northeast through the day.
This storm track is a classic wind producing track for our region. Gusty winds developed overnight but will increase further this morning. Gusts over 40 mph will become common, especially over higher elevations. These winds will be from the south-southeast.
Numerous rain showers will continue, though they should decrease in coverage during the afternoon hours. The best chance for an extended dry period will be during the mid-afternoon. A few breaks of sun could even work out during this time.
Temperatures will peak during this mid-afternoon lull with mid and upper 60s likely. A sharp cold front will move from west to east during the late afternoon. Once this front moves through, temperatures will drop into the mid and upper 40s in mere minutes.
Along this front, there is a small window of opportunity for some heavy downpours, gusty winds, and some lightning. The best chance for thunderstorms will be across the heart of the Finger Lakes, shown in yellow on the map.
Further west, the cold air will take over too fast for storm development. Further east, the loss of daytime heating will cause the storms to dissipate. These storms are likely between 4-8 pm. Severe weather is not expected.
It Wouldn’t Be Spring Without Snow…
A few showers will be possible behind the line, but most of the evening should be rather quiet. Precipitation will increase by dawn Saturday as moisture wraps around the low back into the Finger Lakes. Some or all of this may fall as snow with a light coating possible over higher elevations.
Morning lows Saturday will be in the low and mid 30s.
Strong west-northwest winds will kick up again after sunrise with 40-50 mph wind gusts even more likely than on Friday. High temperatures will be in the mid and upper 40s, but the wind will make it feel colder.
Precipitation will end by the afternoon and skies will at least partially clear. New clouds will work in during the evening, holding temperatures in the mid and upper 30s.
Another batch of precipitation will move in near sunrise Sunday as a new system moves into the region. Once again, snow is a real possibility throughout the morning hours. Some higher elevations could even pick up a couple inches with a coating even in lower elevations. This is not a certainty yet. Road conditions should remain problem-free.
Skies will clear before the day is done and high temperatures will reach the mid 40s. The clear skies will hold into the overnight as high pressure moves in overhead. This will result in a hard freeze across the Finger Lakes with lows ranging through the 20s.
Another system will bring rain into the region late Monday into early Tuesday. Wednesday night, Thursday, and Friday next week also look unsettled.
Temperatures will remain below normal through at least Wednesday with highs generally in the 50s. Some warmer air may work in late in the week.
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