Unsettled but not a Washout
Rain associated with a warm front lifted north through the Finger Lakes early this morning.
Far northern parts of the region will continue to see some rain through about 8 am. Then, the area should be dry until late this afternoon.
Gusty south winds will develop this morning and continue into the afternoon. Most areas will see gusts of 30-35 mph. A few higher elevations may gust to 40 mph.
Skies will remain rather cloudy, but some breaks of sun will be possible from time to time.
Temperatures will be warmest in and around Rochester, where 70 degrees or higher is likely. Most of the Finger Lakes will reach the mid and upper 60s. The I-81 Corridor will only reach the low 60s.
Showers and thunderstorms will pop up in the warm air this afternoon starting around 4 or 5 pm. While the entire region is at risk for some showers, thunderstorms will be limited to northern and western areas, as shown on the accompanying map.
Scattered showers and storms will continue through about midnight, after which the chances for rain will drop. A new area of scattered showers will move in for Thursday morning, especially for areas south of I-90. These should move east by noon. Thursday afternoon looks dry.
Instead of a west to east gradient of warm to cooler temperatures, the set up over the region will turn south to north overnight. Morning lows Thursday will range from the low 40s near Lake Ontario to the mid 50s across the southern half of the Finger Lakes.
Thursday’s highs will be similarly set up, with 50s north of I-90, highs near 70 degrees in the Southern Tier, and 60s sandwiched across the remainder of the area.
Rain chances will again creep up Friday morning, but Friday afternoon will have the highest chance for rain and thunderstorms. Temperatures may reach 70 degrees before the afternoon showers and storms arrive.
Weather for the Weekend and Beyond
The outlook for Saturday is improving. The front that will trigger the rain and thunder Friday is expected to move quickly to the east. A second system to the southwest over the Kentucky and a third system north of Minnesota should both be far enough away to have no direct impact on our weather.
Saturday will likely start out with some cloud cover and perhaps a lingering shower over eastern areas near dawn. The sun should gradually work its way out, especially during the afternoon.
A gentle northwest wind will keep temperatures cool though. Highs will end up ranging from the upper 50s to the low 60s.
Sunday is less certain now as the system over Kentucky tracks northeast. Some models keep this a weak, disorganized system which passes well to our south. Others develop the system further and track it to the north.
The more northern route could spread some afternoon rain into the Finger Lakes. The Southern Tier and Central New York areas will have the best chance at seeing some of this rain.
Temperatures will be highly dependent on this rain. If the system stays south, mid and upper 60s are likely across the region. If the rain makes it into the area, there would be a split between low 60s where it remains cloudy but dry and low and mid 50s where it is rainy.
Regardless on the path of the second system, the third system will drop southeast across the Finger Lakes early Monday. No more than a scattered, brief shower is expected with that weak system. A more substantial chance for rain will move in Tuesday before dry weather Wednesday and Thursday.
Temperatures next week will continue to bounce around from day to day, depending on the storm tracks and timing of the rain. Most days should be near or below normal. There could be some chances for frost later in the week, but it is far too early to tell for sure.
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