Rain and storms Friday as cold front moves through

finger lakes weather forecast friday may 3 2019 rain thunderstorms warm front cold front weekend weather
Rain is falling this morning and will move in again for the second half of the afternoon and the evening. More chances for rain are possible this weekend. [Photo by Meteorologist Drew Montreuil]

Two Periods of Rain Friday

The weather will be active across the Finger Lakes today, but there will be a window of time where it is not raining.

Rain has been falling across the Finger Lakes since the predawn hours as warm air pushes back to the north. At 7am, most of the area was seeing rain, except for in a slot of dry, warm air that was pushing through the western Southern Tier.

Over the next few hours, that dry area will expand and most of the region should be rain free before noon.

There are some breaks in the clouds this morning across western Pennsylvania and eastern Ohio. I expect some of that to move in for the midday and early afternoon hours. It will probably not get fully sunny, but some glimpses of sunshine here and there are possible. This will especially be the case south of I-90.

Temperatures in these areas should jump to near 70 degrees early this afternoon. North of I-90, temperatures will drop through the 60s and into the 50s along the shore of Lake Ontario.

finger lakes weather thunderstorm forecast map friday may 3 2019
Thunderstorms this afternoon and evening are most likely for southern and eastern portions of the Finger Lakes, including Elmira, Ithaca, and Cortland. Click to enlarge.

The second batch of precipitation will move in from the southwest by the mid-afternoon. A few heavier downpours and rumbles of thunder will develop along the leading edge of this rain. The southeastern portion of the region has the best chance at seeing these thundery downpours, as indicated in yellow on the embedded map.

Some locally heavy rain amounts could result, but neither flooding nor severe weather is expected.

Rain showers will continue throughout the evening across the entire region. These will slowly depart to the east after midnight.

Weekend Weather Forecast

Saturday will start off cool and cloudy. Low clouds, areas of fog, and drizzle will all be possible and may linger into the first half of the afternoon. Temperatures will start out in the mid 40s.

With the cloud cover and a light north-northwest wind, high temperatures will be in the upper 50s. Late in the afternoon, some breaks of sunshine should appear, only to be replaced by new clouds during the evening.

Low pressure will pass south of the region early Sunday but should be close enough for at least some rain in the Finger Lakes. Models still differ greatly on the northern extent of the rain. It is reasonable to expect that most of the region will see at least some rain through the morning hours on Sunday.

There is a small chance that the area could be missed entirely, or that the southeastern half of the region could see rain amounts in excess of an inch.

The rain should move east during the afternoon, but how quickly will depend on how far north it initially goes.

Temperatures, too, will depend on the position of the rain. Where it rains steadily, highs will only manage the low and mid 50s. If the rain stays away, and some sun comes out, look for highs to reach the mid 60s.

Next week our region will see a weak system late Tuesday and a more meaningful system Thursday. Monday and Tuesday will be warm, but below normal temperatures are likely thereafter, pending the track of Thursday’s system.

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Meteorologist Drew Montreuil
Follow Meteorologist Drew Montreuil:
Meteorologist Drew Montreuil has been forecasting the weather in the Finger Lakes region since 2006 and has degrees in meteorology from SUNY Oswego (B.S. with Honors) and Cornell (M.S.). Drew and his wife have three young boys and also run a goat milk soap business, Ye Olde Goat Cart. When not working or playing with the boys, he is probably out for a run through the countryside.