On and Off Rain Through Thursday
Rain has moved into the Finger Lakes early this morning as the start of a wet few days.
A stalled out frontal boundary draped from west to east will serve as the focal point for waves of low pressure. As these systems pass by, rain will flare up.
The first such system is over Michigan this morning. Widespread showers out ahead of the low are in place early this morning. By the mid to late morning, the steady rain will taper to more scattered shower activity.
This afternoon, the low will pass over the Finger Lakes. Warm air immediately preceding the low pressure center will push north into portions of the region. Highs will reach the low and mid 70s for most areas along and south of I-90. To the north, temperatures will be in the 60s or even upper 50s near the shore of Lake Ontario.
There may be just enough fuel for some thunderstorm development across the Southern Tier this afternoon. The greatest thunderstorm threat will remain south across Pennsylvania. Outside of any thunderstorms, this afternoon will be marked by mostly cloudy skies and a couple isolated showers.
Overnight, we will be between systems, so the weather will be quiet. A stray shower cannot be ruled out, but most areas will remain dry. Look for morning lows around 50 degrees early Wednesday.
Rain will move back in for the midday and afternoon hours on Wednesday. Again, the best chance for thunderstorms will be to our south. There is some uncertainty in the extent of the rain, which will partially depend on how thunderstorms develop today across the Plains.
We should remain on the cool side of the stalled out front with highs Wednesday ranging through the 60s.
Thursday’s rain chances will mostly come during the afternoon hours. Some thunderstorms may be possible, but the extent and strength of any storms is highly uncertain.
Drying Out
The weather system that moves through on Thursday will clear out the eastern half of the nation. A weak high pressure system will spread itself across most of the East by Friday with little precipitation falling east of the Rocky Mountains.
Locally, expect some morning cloud cover and fog with clear afternoon skies. Temperatures will be in the mid to perhaps upper 60s.
Saturday and Sunday will both have temperatures around 70 degrees. A small system will dive southeast through the Great Lakes, then east across the Mid-Atlantic. This could touch off a few scattered afternoon showers or storms both Saturday and Sunday.
As things look right now, neither day looks like it will have a lot of rain and many areas will probably get through the weekend without seeing rain.
While the confidence in the day to day weather decreases beyond 5-7 days, much of next week is looking quiet as a benign weather pattern persists. Temperatures for the first part of the week will be in the 60s with 70s returning late.
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