Minimal Risk for Southern Areas
A frontal boundary will slowly sink south through the Finger Lakes today.
Already this morning, the front is producing some scattered areas of rain across the area.
Most of the rain this morning will move out or dissipate by the mid-morning hours. Partly cloudy skies should develop in the wake of the rain.
Temperatures will rise into the upper 70s with low 80s in the Southern Tier. It will also be humid with dew points around 70 degrees. This will create an environment favorable for thunderstorm development.
By the mid-afternoon, showers and storms should begin to pop up over the Finger Lakes. These will strengthen and organize as they head south. The primary severe threat will be over Pennsylvania, but the southern half of the Finger Lakes could see a couple stronger storms as well.
Damaging winds will be the primary threat from these storms, though a little small hail will also be possible. Lightning and heavy downpours will also be likely. The storm threat will be greatest between 2-5 PM, after which the storms will have moved south out of the area.
Not all areas shaded in green will see rain or thunderstorms this afternoon, let alone strong thunderstorms.
The thunderstorms that do form today pose an extra hazard with countless people outside at high school graduation parties throughout the region. Be weather aware if you are hosting or going to an outdoor event of any type this afternoon.
Be ready to seek shelter if a storm moves into your area. Do not wait for the storm to be overhead, but head indoors at the first rumble of thunder. Remember to wait 30 minutes after the last thunder to head back outside or into the water.
Weather Tonight and Beyond
In the wake of these storms, areas of fog will be possible this evening and into the overnight hours.
Fog, low clouds, and drizzle will be possible early Sunday before some sun works out for the afternoon.
Sunday will be cooler and much less humid. High temperatures will top out in the upper 60s and low 70s.
Monday will be sunny and warm with highs back in the upper 70s. Rain and some thunder will move through during the overnight hours but should mostly clear out by Tuesday morning. Tuesday and Wednesday will be sunny, dry, and warm. Highs Tuesday will be in the upper 70s with low and mid 80s Wednesday.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible on July 4th (Thursday) and into the holiday weekend. Temperatures will depend on the timing and coverage of any rain but should stick in the upper 70s or 80s.
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