After showers this morning rain chances on the decline

finger lakes weather forecast tuesday july 2 2019 rain showers july 4th forecast weekend rain
Rain showers will move through the Finger Lakes this morning but the forecast is looking drier this afternoon through Friday. [Photo by Joan Lockwood]

Forecast Looking Drier

Scattered rain showers are around the Finger Lakes this morning as a frontal boundary drops south.

These showers will be off and on through the morning but should move out before noon. One or two of the showers could have some briefly moderate to heavy rain, but precipitation amounts will remain low nonetheless.

This afternoon, skies will remain more cloudy than sunny. One or two more showers may pop up, along with a very small chance for a thunderstorm. The chance for a storm is greatest west of I-390 and over the Southern Tier.

Temperatures will range from the mid 70s over higher elevations to the low 80s in the valleys of the Southern Tier and along the I-90 Corridor to the north.

There will continue to be a very small chance for a stray shower Wednesday and Thursday. However, these will be few and far between. Most areas will not see any rain on either day.

The chances for rain have dropped as a result of the front stalling out further south than it looked like it was going to yesterday.

It will still be warm, though not as humid as was expected. High temperatures will reach the low and mid 80s on Wednesday. Mid and upper 80s should be widespread on Thursday with a few places likely hitting 90 degrees.

Holiday Weekend Rain Chances

In my post yesterday, I mentioned that the chances for rain would be greatest on Friday or Saturday and indicated that Saturday was the more likely day for rain.

This trend has continued with an increasing chance for dry weather extending into Friday for at least parts of the region.

Some late day showers and thunderstorms may still fire up over western portions of the region. Eastern areas are more likely to remain rain free. Of course, this is still several days away, so the cut-off between dry conditions and scattered showers and storms will continue to fluctuate.

Showers and storms will be more likely on Saturday, though there are uncertainties here as well. A frontal passage early in the day would limit the intensity of the rain and lead to a possibly dry afternoon. A later frontal passage would lead to more widespread thunderstorm activity.

Regardless, those with outdoor plans Friday or Saturday should continue to monitor the forecast as this set up evolves.

Friday’s temperatures will depend on how the rain sets up. In areas that see rain, highs will be in the upper 70s or low 80s. Areas that stay dry, however, should reach the upper 80s to near 90 degrees. Saturday is less likely to be hot, but temperatures should still hover near 80 degrees.

Dry weather continues to look possible Sunday, Monday, Tuesday, and maybe even most of Wednesday next week. Temperatures will start with 70s on Sunday but will build back through the 80s early next week.

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Follow Meteorologist Drew Montreuil:
Meteorologist Drew Montreuil has been forecasting the weather in the Finger Lakes region since 2006 and has degrees in meteorology from SUNY Oswego (B.S. with Honors) and Cornell (M.S.). Drew and his wife have four young boys. When not working or playing with the boys, he is probably out for a run through the countryside.

4 Responses

  1. Kelly Doolittle

    Hi Drew! I’m guessing you won’t be able to be any more specific about who [where] might get how much of these showers that are possible until noon, but just in case, do you have any more solid predictions for ithaca between 11:00 and 12:00? Definitely a hard day for Stories in the Park decisions today! Thanx for any help & no worries if it’s just not possible to be so specific with the predictions!

    • Meteorologist Drew Montreuil

      Most of the showers are already pressing east. There is a little that may clip Ithaca in the next 60-90 minutes…but it may be OK enough for the park today, especially if you can tolerate a couple drips.

      • Kelly Doolittle

        thanx so much, Drew – I think we can tolerate a few drips from a stray cloud or two. After doing this for 10 years I’ve seen almost all the weather possibilities. When we get a little sprinklk, some people panic and leave, but most people stay 🙂

  2. Nathan Zimmerman

    I’m glad the forecast is trending towards the drier side, but I’m still crossing my fingers for Saturday as my daughter will be getting married at a winery on the south west side of Seneca Lake that afternoon. I’m hanging on to “a possibly dry afternoon.” No matter what the weather, I’m sure it will be a beautiful day. 😉